Table of Content

  

10 September 2016
Volume 54 Issue 9

Review on diagnosis and treatment of pernicious placenta previa

ZUO Changting, LIAN Yan

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  1-6.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.675

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Pernicious placenta previa is a serious complication of cesarean section. With the rate of cesarean section increased in recent years, the incidence of pernicious placenta previa is increasing. Pernicious placenta previa and its severe complications have attracted much attention. Radiological and serological detection provides a basis for clinical 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -左常婷,等.凶险性前置胎盘诊治现状 \=-diagnosis and preoperative assessment of pernicious placenta previa. Prophylactic balloon occlusion, bladder endoscopy, multiple conservative surgery hemostasis, massive transfusion, autologous blood transfusion and other multidisciplinary comprehensive treatment can effectively reduce maternal and fetal mortality.

Magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of pernicious placenta previa

WANG Guangbin

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  7-9.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.546

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Confirmation of pernicious placenta previa with or without placental accreta is crucial for the prenatal diagnosis. Placental accreta will occur when deficient development of the decidua results in abnormal attachment of the placenta to myometrium without invasion of the muscle, invasion into the deep myometrium, or even accreta through the myometrium and uterine serosa. High spatial and tissue resolution ratio of MRI can accurately identify whether placental accreta occurs and evaluate the depth, size and range of accreta. Above all, MRI has been a vital complementary technique in the evaluation of placental accreta.

Diagnostic value of prenatal ultrasound in placenta accreta of different trimesters of pregnancy

TAO Guowei, WANG Xiaoling, SHI Linlin, DING Tingting

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  10-13.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.547

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Placenta accreta may lead to severe obstetric complications. Ultrasonography is the first-rate imaging modality for its diagnosis. The typical ultrasonic characteristics of placenta accreta occur in the second and third trimester. Recently, with the increase of studies on the ultrasonic manifestations in the first trimester, researches indicate that there is a close correlation between cesarean scar pregnancy and placenta accreta. This article reviews the pathology and types of placenta accreta, ultrasonic evaluation in the second and third trimester, ultrasonic manifestations in the first trimester, and the relationship between cesarean scar pregnancy and placenta accreta.

Role of intravascular interventional therapy in cesarean section for pernicious placenta previa complicated with placenta accreta

SHANG Jianqiang

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  14-17.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.680

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In recent years, the incidence of pernicious placenta previa(PPP)has been on the rise, which seriously threatens women's life and health with severe hemorrhage and high rate of cesarean hysterectomia. To control the complications, intra-aortic balloon occlusion and internal iliac balloon occlusion have been adopted in the operation of cesarean for patients with PPP. However, these methods are still in the early stage, and further researches are needed to explore their value and risks. In this review we overviewed the development of intra-aortic balloon occlusion and internal iliac balloon occlusion, as well as their advantages, limitations, and complications.

Prophylactic abdominal aorta arteries balloon occlusion in cesarean section for pernicious placenta previa and placenta increta in third trimester

ZHANG Chunhua, ZUO Changting, WANG Xietong

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  18-21.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.545

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Objective To explore the efficacy of prophylactic abdominal aorta arteries balloon occlusion in cesarean section for pernicious placenta previa and placenta increta. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted in 140 cases of pernicious placenta previa and placenta increta admitted to our hospital during March 2003 and March 2016. The study group(n=111)underwent prophylactic abdominal aorta arteries balloon placement before cesarean section and occlusion after delivery. The control group(n=29)received conventional haemostasis druring cesarean section. The amount of blood loss and blood transfusion during operation, hysterectomy rate, infection rate and neonatal asphyxia rate of the two groups were compared with T test or Chi-square test. Results The volume of intraoperative hemorrhage and volume of intraoperative blood transfusion in the study group and control group were(2 139.19±1 533.748)mL vs(3 968.97±3 103.811)mL,(1 713.06±1 391.495)mL vs(3 237.93±2 461.186)mL,(P=0.004, P=0.003). The hysterectomy rate in the study group and control group was 18.01%(20/111)vs 79.31%(23/29),(P<0.001). There was no statistical difference in the infection rate and neonatal asphyxia rate(P=1.000, P=0.634). Conclusion Prophylactic abdominal aorta arteries balloon occlusion is effective in reducing intraoperative blood loss, transfusion and hysterectomy rate in patients with pernicious placenta previa and placenta increta.

Application of abdominal aorta balloon occlusion in cesarean section for patients with pernicious placenta previa complicated by placenta accreta

LI Jijun, ZUO Changting, WANG Xietong, SHANG Jianqiang

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  22-25.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.548

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Objective To explore the clinical application of abdominal aorta balloon occlusion in cesarean section for patients with pernicious placenta previa(PPP). Methods The clinical data of 65 consecutive cases of PPP complicated with placenta accreta were retrospectively analyzed. Prophylactic abdominal aortic occlusion balloon catheter was placed transfemorally in the angiography room before surgery. Abdominal aorta occlusion was performed during the cesarean deliveries. The incidence of hysterectomia, estimated blood loss, number of transfused units of red blood cells and maternal radiation dose were recorded. Results The volume of bleeding was 200-4 500 mL(mean 1 520 mL), and transfused red blood cells was 0-3 600 mL(mean 1 040 mL). Hysterectomy was performed in 7 cases(10.8%). No serious materna1 and infant complications occurred during and after the surgery. Conclusion Balloon occlusion of the abdominal aorta in cesarean section seems to be safe and effective in controlling bleeding and risks of hysterectomia. The radiation exposure is safe to infants. However, patients should be selected strictly according to the operative indications to avoid risks of complications.

Effect of halofuginone on macrophage polarization in endometriosis mouse

YANG Yanjun, LIANG Jing, LI Fang, DU Lingxi

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  26-31.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.149

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Objective To explore the effect of Halofuginone(HF)on macrophage polarization in endometriosis(EMs)mouse. Methods EMs mouse model was established. The lesion size was observed and calculated. The macrophage markers, including M1 phenotype(CD16/32⁺, CD197⁺)and M2 phenotype(CD206⁺, CD14⁺), were measured by flow cytometry. The expressions of macrophage molecules, including M1 phenotype(iNOS, IL-12)and M2 phenotype(IL-10, Arg-1), were detected by Western Blot. The levels of cytokines were measured by ELISA. Finally, the separated macrophages were treated with TGF-β1 and the expressions of iNOS and Arg-1 were examined by Western Blot. Moreover, the positive cell number was detected by flow cytometry. Results HF decreased the lesion seize in EMs mouse. The numbers of M1 phenotype were increased and M2 were reduced. The expressions of M1 markers were promoted, and the expressions of M2 were restrained with HF treatment. The levels of pro-inflammation cytokines were increased with decreased level of anti-inflammation cytokines by HF. The cell numbers of iNOS⁺ were increased and Arg-1 were decreased in TGF-β1 treated macrophages. Conclusion HF directly affects macrophages, maintains the balance of inflammatory microenvironment in EMs mouse, suppresses the macrophages polarization towards M2 phenotype, reduces the lesion seize of EMs mouse.

Effect of expression of ribosomal protein S6 Kinase 4 variants on the proliferation of breast cancer cell MDA-MB-231

TIAN Siqi, LIU Riqiang, YANG Ning, WEI Wei, YANG Huawei

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  32-36.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2015.1255

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Objective To investigate the effect of expression of ribosomal protein S6 kinase 4 variants(RSK4m)on the proliferation of breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-231. Methods Lentiviral vector of RSK4 variants were constructed and transfected on breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-231. A negative control group(mock group)and overexpression RSK4m1 group(OE1 group), overexpression RSK4m2 group(OE2 group), overexpression RSK4m3 group(OE3 group)were set respectively. The expressions of three RSK4 variants were detected with qRT- PCR and Western blot. The proliferation of transfected cells was assayed by Cell Counting Kit-8. Finally, the interaction of RSK4m with heat shock proteins observed in preliminary experiments was verified with CO-IP. Results The mRNA and protein expressions of RSK4 variants were significantly up-regulated in transfected cells(all P<0.05). Compared with the mock group, the OE1, OE2 and OE3 groups had significant differences in the inhibition rate(%)at 48, 72, and 96 hour(P<0.05). CO-IP results confirmed the existence of interaction between heat shock protein and RSK4m. Conclusion The expression of RSK4m can inhibit the proliferation of MDA-MB-231. Its regulatory mechanism may differ from that of RSK4w.

Effects of TGF β-1 on the activation of endometrial stromal cells in tumor microenvironment

LU Zhenzhen, YAN Lei, ZHANG Hui, ZHANG Xiaohui, ZHAO Xingbo

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  37-40.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.096

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Objective To investigate the effects of endometrial carcinoma microenvironment and transforming growth factor β-1(TGF β-1)on the activation of normal endometrial fibroblasts(NF)to carcinoma-associated fibroblasts(CAF). Methods Endometrial carcinoma cell line(Ishikawa cells)was cultured in vitro. Conditioned medium(CM)was prepared. Primarily cultured NF was co-cultured. The cells were divided into four groups and treated accordingly: NF group(group A), NF+TGF β-1(group B), NF+CM(group C), and NF+CM+TGF β-R I/II kinase inhibitors(group D). The expression of α-smooth muscle actin(α-SMA)was detected with QT-PCR and Western blotting. Results The α-SMA protein and mRNA expressions in group B and C were higher than those in group A(P=0.01, P<0.001; P<0.001, P=0.01). The α-SMA protein and mRNA expressions in group B and C were higher than those in group D(P<0.001, P=0.01; P<0.001, P=0.01). Compared with group C, group B had higher α-SMA protein expression(P<0.001), but the α-SMA mRNA expression had no statistical difference(P=0.40). Conclusion Endometrial carcinoma microenvironment can promote the transformation of NF-CAF, and TGFβ-1 plays an important role in the process.

Effect of osteopontin through NF-kappaB signaling pathway in the temporomandibular joint of rats subjected to chronic sleep deprivation

DING Feng, DONG Yabing, ZHAO Huaqiang, ZHU Guoxiong, WU Gaoyi

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  41-47.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2015.898

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Objective To explore the effect of osteopontin(OPN)in the temporomandibular joint(TMJ)of rats subjected to chronic sleep deprivation(CSD). Methods Rats were subjected to CSD using the modified multiple platform method(MMPM). A total of 180 male 8-week-old Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups(n=90 per group): the control(CON)group and chronic sleep deprivation(CSD)group. The two groups were equally divided into three subgroups(n=30 each)according to the observation time points(4, 6, and 8 weeks). The expression of OPN was measured with immunohistochemical method. The expression of NF-κB of TMJ was measured with immunohistochemical method and immunofluorescence. The relationship between the expressions of OPN and NF-κB and CSD extension was analyzed. Results Hematoxylin and eosin(HE)staining showed pathological alterations in the TMJ in the CSD group. With the extension of CSD, the injury on cartilage was exacerbated. The expressions of OPN and 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -丁凤,等.在慢性睡眠剥夺中骨桥蛋白通过NF-kappaB通路对颞下颌关节的影响 \=-NF-κB in the CSD groups were significantly higher than those in the control group(P<0.05). The expressions of OPN and NF-κB had a rising tendency with the extension of CSD. Conclusion CSD causes pathological alterations in the TMJ condylar cartilages by the expression of OPN from rat condylar cartilage chondrocytes and various inflammatory cells. OPN aggravates the pathological changes in the TMJ by activating the NF-κB signaling pathway.

Diagnostic value of virtual touch tissue quantification in the differential diagnosis of breast tumors

FAN Fengjing, ZHANG Guangying, CAO Shujuan, DING Hongyu, LIU Dequan

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  48-52.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.067

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Objective To explore the diagnostic value of virtual touch tissue quantification(VTQ)in the differential diagnosis of breast masses. Methods A total of 102 patients with 107 breast masses were examined by means of VTQ technique. The shear wave velocity(SWV)was measured within the lesion(SWVi), in the boundary zone(SWVb)and in the normal glandular tissues(SWVg). With results of pathological diagnosis as the gold standard, receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of VTQ and to find the optimal cut-off point in differentiating malignant from benign lesions. Results The SWVi was higher than SWVb and SWVg, and SWVb was higher than SWVg in both malignant and benign groups(P<0.05). The SWVi and SWVb were(6.70±1.75)and(4.58±1.38)m/s, respectively in malignant lesions, and were(3.52±1.52)and(2.80±0.97)m/s respectively in benign lesions, with significant differences between benign and malignant lesions(P<0.01). When the cut-off point of SWVi was determined as 5.06 m/s, the sensitivity was 83.7% and the specificity was 85.9%. When the cut-off point of SWVb was determined as 3.51 m/s, the sensitivity was 79.1% and the specificity was 81.2%. Conclusion The SWVi and SWVb can help the differential diagnosis of breast tumors.

Relationship between uterine fibroid and hyperplasia of mammary glands: a cohort study

LI Xiangyi, SUN Xiubin, LU Yulian, SHEN Zhenwei, CHEN Yafei, TANG Fang, XUE Fuzhong

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  53-58.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.249

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Objective To explore the association between uterine fibroid and hyperplasia of mammary glands based on a cohort design in Chinese population. Methods A longitudinal cohort based on large population was established to follow up the outcome of hyperplasia of mammary glands. Cox proportional hazards regression model and logistic model were used to detect the association between uterine fibroid and hyperplasia of mammary glands. Results The incidence density of hyperplasia of mammary glands was 205.23/1000 person-year. Unadjusted Cox model showed that relative risk(RR)value of uterine fibroids on hyperplasia of mammary glands was 1.26(95%CI: 1.12-1.43, P<0.001). Then, after adjusting age, the RR was changed to 1.37(95%CI: 1.21-1.55, P<0.001). After continually adjusting the factors of overweight, drinking, smoking, sleeping quality and other risk factors, the RR was 1.36 (95%CI: 1.19-1.55, P<0.001). Logistic model showed that HR of uterine fibroids on hyperplasia of mammary glands was 1.94(95%CI: 1.32-2.85, P<0.001). Conclusion The existence of uterine fibroids was still confirmed to be associated with hyperplasia of mammary glands after adjusting many known risk factors, suggesting that people suffering from uterine fibroids had a greater risk of hyperplasia of mammary glands.

Expression and significance of human leucocyte antigen-E in cervical cancer

WANG Yao, CUI Guoying, WANG Fei, LI Changzhong

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  59-63.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.357

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Objective To explore the correlation between expression of human leucocyte antigen-E(HLA-E)in cervical cancer and the pathological features of cervical cancer and its possible role in the pathogenesis of cervical cancer. Methods The expression of HLA-E was assayed by immunohistochemical staining in 18 cases of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion(HSIL), 74 cases of cervical cancer and 20 cases of adjacent normal tissues. The correlation between HLA-E expression and clinical staging, histological type, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node metastasis, and muscle invasion was analyzed. Results Immunohistochemical staining showed the expression of HLA-E in cervical cancer and HSIL tissues were significantly higher than that in the adjacent normal cervical tissues(P=0.01), and the expression of HLA-E in cervical cancer was higher than that in the HSIL tissues(P<0.01). The expression of HLA-E was significantly correlated to tumor size and depth of myometrial invasion(all P<0.05), but not correlated to histological type, tumor differentiation, and lymph node metastasis(all P>0.05). Conclusion HLA-E expression is involved in the immune escape mechanism of cervical cancer. It may provide new directions and ideas for the treatment of cervical cancer by altering the immune status of patients.

Correlation between multiorgan damage and perinatal asphyxia occurred at different gestational ages

QIU Jie, ZANG Lijiao, ZHUANG Genmiao, AN Li

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  64-68.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.248

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Objective To study the relationship between multiorgan damage and perinatal asphyxia occurred at different gestational ages. Methods A total of 165 cases born in the Obstetrics Department of Jinan Central Hospital who had risks of neonatal asphyxia were collected. According to the results of umbilical arterial blood gas analysis and Apgar score, these neonates were divided into the premature asphyxia group, full-term asphyxia group, premature control group and full-term control group. The incidence of MODS was compared. The 79 cases of perinatal asphyxia were divided into early premature asphyxia group, late premature asphyxia group and full-term asphyxia group according to gestational ages. The severity of MODS was compared. Then the 79 cases of perinatal asphyxia were divided into mild asphyxia group and severe asphyxia group according to the degree of asphyxia, and the severity of MODS in the two groups was compared. Results The incidence of MODS was higher in the premature asphyxia group than in the full-term asphyxia group, with statistically significant difference(χ2=5.37, P<0.05). The severity of MODS following perinatal asphyxia was highest in the early premature asphyxia group, followed by late premature asphyxia group, and full-term asphyxia group, with statistically significant difference(χ2=6.11, P<0.05). There was correlation between the incidence of MODS and gestational age(r=0.29), and the degree of MODS and gestational age(r=0.35). There was statistical difference in the incidence of MODS, and severity of MODS between mild and severe asphyxia groups(χ2=9.30, P<0.05),(χ2=6.80, P<0.05). Conclusion Preterm infants have higher risk of MODS after 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -仇杰,等.不同胎龄围生期窒息与多器官功能损伤的相关性 \=-perinatal asphyxia than term infants. Smaller gestational age is correlated to higher incidence and severity of MODS. And the severity of perinatal asphyxia is positively correlated to the incidence and severity of MODS.

A prediction model for type 2 diabetes risks: a cohort study based on health examination

YANG Yang, ZHANG Guang, ZHANG Chengqi, SONG Xinhong, XUE Fuzhong, WANG Ping, WANG Li, LIU Yanxun

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  69-72.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.074

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Objective To establish a model to evaluate the risks of type 2 diabetes among Han population in mainland China. Methods A total of 16,715 non-diabetic people who underwent routine health check-up at the Center for Health Management of Qianfoshan Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University and Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University during Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2010 were enrolled in the study. These people were randomly divided into the training group (n=11 700, 70%)and testing group(n=5 015, 30%). Cox regression was used to construct a simple risk model among the training group by stepwise selection method, and risk classification was drawn up according to the prognostic index. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the stability of the model in the testing group. Discriminatory ability was determined by the area under the ROC curve. Results Altogether 858 new diabetic cases were observed over the five-year follow-up, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 15.14/1000 person years. The risk factors included age, body mass index, fasting blood-glucose, triglyceride, hypertension status and leukocyte logarithm. The estimated AUC for the model was 0.742(95%CI: 0.732-0.752)in the training group and 0.760(95%CI: 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -杨洋,等.基于体检队列的2型糖尿病风险预测模型 \=-0.748-0.772)in the testing group. Conclusion We have constructed a risk model that could be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of diabetes in health examination population.

Prevalence and influencing factors of methamphetamine use among female sex workers

CHEN Wukang, LÜ Cuixia, ZHANG Xiaofei, DONG Lei, DU Yihui, FU Jihua

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  73-76.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2015.1318

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Objective To investigate the prevalence and influencing factors of methamphetamine use among female sex workers(FSWs)in Jiaozhou City of Shandong Province. Methods A questionnaire survey was conducted among 150 FSWs in Jiaozhou in 2013. The influencing factors were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence of methamphetamine use in the FSWs was 34.7%(52/150). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that top-grade places of sex service(OR=4.422, 95%CI=1.524-12.837), call FSWs(OR=8.984, 95%CI=1.858-43.439), higher educational background(OR=4.088, 95%CI=1.385-12.064)were independently associated with methamphetamine use among FSWs. Conclusion The prevalence of methamphetamine use is high among FSWs in Jiaozhou City of Shandong Province. Effective measures should be taken to control HIV among the population who have both prostitution and drug-use behaviors.

HIV drug resistance and the impact of antiretroviral therapy initiated at different stages among AIDS patiens

YUAN Yuan, SI Heng, LIU Hongwei, LIU Chunhua, WANG Zhe, RUAN Yuhua, XING Hui

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  77-81.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.005

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Objective To compare the impact of antiretroviral therapy initiated at different stages on drug resistance among AIDS patients. Methods AIDS patients treated with first-line HAART for 6 months in Henan Province were investigated with cross-sectional survey and blood samples were collected. According to the level of baseline immunology, the patients were divided into 3 groups: early treatment group(n=132, CD4⁺T cell counts ≥ 350 cell/mm³), conventional treatment group(n=200, 200 cell/mm³ < CD4⁺T cell counts < 350 cell/mm³)and delayed treatment group(n=329, CD4⁺T cell counts ≤ 200 cell/mm³). The factors associated with the development of HIV-1 drug resistance were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression. Results A total of 661 patients were investigated. The total prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance was 34.3%(227/661). The prevalence of drug resistance in the early treatment group, conventional treatment group and delayed treatment group was 21.2%(28/132), 35.5%(71/200)and 38.9%(128/329), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the protective factors associated with the development of drug resistance included earlier treatment(OR=0.31, 95%CI 0.19-0.51, P<0.001), high compliance(OR=0.48, 95%CI 0.30-0.78, P=0.003)and initiation of ART with 3TC(OR=0.20, 95%CI 0.20- 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -袁源,等.不同时期抗病毒治疗对艾滋病患者耐药产生的影响分析 \=-0.40, P<0.001), while long-duration of treatment(OR=1.90, 95%CI 1.22-2.95, P=0.004 3)was the risk factor. Conclusion Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy for AIDS patients receiving HAART could reduce the emergence of the drug resistant strains and acquire good effect.

Application of SARIMA model in predicting the incidence of mumps

LI Runzi, ZHANG Tao, LIANG Yumin , LUO Cheng, JIANG Zheng, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun, LIU Jing, LI Xiujun

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  82-86.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2015.1163

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Objective To predict the incidence of mumps with autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model so as to provide scientific guidance for its prevention and control. Methods Time-series data of monthly mumps cases from Jan. 2009 to July 2013 were analyzed using SARIMA model and predictive model was established to predict the incidence from August to December 2013. Results From 2009 to 2013, a total of 8,520 cases of mumps were reported in Jining City. Eventually the optimal model of SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ was established, and the information criterion(AIC)was 74.45. Parameters estimated were statistically significant, and residuals were white noise sequence. Monthly mumps cases from January 2009 to July 2013 were used for model fitting and the monthly mumps cases from Aug. to Dec. 2013 predicted by the optimal model were within the 95% confidence interval, and were consistent with the trend of the actual incidence, which demonstrated the rationality of the model. Correlation between actual case number and fitted case number was statistically significant(r=0.75, P<0.000 1). Conclusion SARIMA model can fit the incidence of dynamic change of mumps, and can be used to make short-term prediction and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of mumps.

Use of SIR model in evaluation of control measures for adults measles outbreak

LUO Cheng, XU Qing, SUN Lin, ZHANG Tao, LI Runzi, LIU Yanxun, XUE Fuzhong, LI Xiujun

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  87-91.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.042

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Objective A susceptible-infectious-recovered(SIR)model was established to describe the process of measles outbreak, and to analyze the control effect of vaccination and optimal control strategy. Methods Under the special circumstances, we adopted Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)to estimate the parameters of the model based on the real infected numbers. We calculated the basic reproduction number(R₀)and effective reproduction number(R_t)base on rational assumptions to analyze the control effect of vaccination. Results The effective contact rate β was 0.001 06, the recovery rate γ was 0.117 and R₀ was 2.96. The percentage of patients could reduce by 90.6% if emergency vaccination was used the second day after outbreak. On the 26^th day, R_t<1, and the disease would fade away even if there were no vaccination. Conclusion The SIR model is suitable for studying adults’ measles outbreak, and it is close to real situation in estimating parameters.

Survey on fungi contamination of wheat harvested in 2015 from Anhui Province of China

XU Wenjing, HAN Xiaomin, ZHANG Jing, PAN Zhuo, LI Fengqin, ZHANG Lishi

JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES). 2016, 54(9):  92-96.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.063

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Objective To evaluate the fungi contamination of wheat harvested in 2015 in order to provide the basis for fungi and mycotoxin control and study in predictive microbiology. Methods Organoleptic examinations and thousand-grain weight check were conducted for wheat kernel samples collected without storage from five regions of Anhui Province harvested in 2015. Wheat kernels were sterilized and inoculated onto potato dextrose agar medium plates which contained 0.1 g/L chloramphenicol. The colony-forming units of fungi germinated were enumerated, classified and identified after incubation for 5 d at(28±1)℃. Results Varied amounts of gibberella damaged wheat kernels were observed in each sample, the frequencies ranging from 8.0% to 20.0%. The average value of thousand-grain weight ranged from 39.8 to 48.5 g. The frequency of scabby wheat kernels had negative correlation with thousand-grain weight(r=-0.98). The frequency of wheat samples contaminated by fungi was up to 100.0%, and the predominant was Alternaria species. Conclusion The wheat kernels collected from five regions of Anhui Province harvested in 2015 are seriously contaminated by fungi and the frequency of scabby wheat kernels is pretty high. There is a need to focus on the detection of mycotoxins combined with a risk assessment of different mycotoxins in wheat and its products to Chinese population.