JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2016, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (9): 69-72.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.074

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A prediction model for type 2 diabetes risks: a cohort study based on health examination

YANG Yang1, ZHANG Guang2, ZHANG Chengqi2, SONG Xinhong3, XUE Fuzhong1, WANG Ping4, WANG Li5, LIU Yanxun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Health Examiwation Center, Qianfoshan Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    3. Health Examination Center, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    4. Outpatient Operating Room, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    5. Department of Cardiology, Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-01-21 Online:2016-09-10 Published:2016-09-10

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Abstract: Objective To establish a model to evaluate the risks of type 2 diabetes among Han population in mainland China. Methods A total of 16,715 non-diabetic people who underwent routine health check-up at the Center for Health Management of Qianfoshan Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University and Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University during Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2010 were enrolled in the study. These people were randomly divided into the training group (n=11 700, 70%)and testing group(n=5 015, 30%). Cox regression was used to construct a simple risk model among the training group by stepwise selection method, and risk classification was drawn up according to the prognostic index. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the stability of the model in the testing group. Discriminatory ability was determined by the area under the ROC curve. Results Altogether 858 new diabetic cases were observed over the five-year follow-up, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 15.14/1000 person years. The risk factors included age, body mass index, fasting blood-glucose, triglyceride, hypertension status and leukocyte logarithm. The estimated AUC for the model was 0.742(95%CI: 0.732-0.752)in the training group and 0.760(95%CI: 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -杨洋,等.基于体检队列的2型糖尿病风险预测模型 \=-0.748-0.772)in the testing group. Conclusion We have constructed a risk model that could be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of diabetes in health examination population.

Key words: Type 2 diabetes, Cohort study, Predictive model, Health check-up

CLC Number: 

  • R587.1
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