JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 104-107.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.401

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A prediction model to estimate risks of cataract based on health management cohort

YU Yuanyuan1,2, WANG Chunxia3, SU Ping1,2, SUN Yuanying1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, LIU Yanxun1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Health Management Center, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining 272000, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-05-06 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To establish a prediction model to estimate risks of cataract among health management population aged above 50 years. Methods Based on the Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management, a prediction model for cataract was constructed using Coxs proportional hazards regression model. The predictability was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC). The stability was tested with ten-fold cross-validation. Results During the follow-up period, there were 1010 new cataract cases, and the incidence density was 24.76‰. The risk factors included in prediction model were age, sex, smoking habit, hyperviscosemia, tympanic diseases, ametropia, diabetes, total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure(SBP). The AUC of the prediction model was 0.712(95% CI: 0.693-0.732). The ten-fold cross-validation showed that the AUC was 0.714. Conclusion The prediction model of cataract has high predictability and reliability. It can provide scientific basis for identifying high-risk groups of cataract.

Key words: Cohort study, Cataract, Coxs proportional hazards regression, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R776.1
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