JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 66-71.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.358

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A prediction model for coronary heart disease risks based on health management cohort

WANG Chunxia1, XU Yibo2,3, YANG Ning1, XIA Bing1, WANG Ping4, XUE Fuzhong2,3   

  1. 1. Health Management Center, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining 272000, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    4. Operating Room of Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To establish a risk predicting model for coronary heart disease in health management cohort in Shandong province. Methods The cohort consisted of the health management cohort in Shandong province. Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to screen the variables based on other predictive models. We used competing risk prediction model to establish the prediction model, and ten-fold cross validation to test the stability of the model. Results There were 73 386 subjects in the cohort, including 41 968 males and 31 418 females. The median follow-up time was 3.10 years. Coronary heart disease occurred in 1 545 sbujects, including 958 males and 587 females. The incidence density was 5.95 per 1 000 person-years for males and 4.90 per 1 000 person-years for females. The AUC of the male model was 0.809(95CI: 0.804-0.815), and the O/E value was 0.98. The AUC of the female model was 0.869(95%CI: 0.863-0.874), and the O/E value was 1.02. In the ten-fold cross validation model, the AUC of the male model was 0.806(95%CI: 0.801-0.812), and the AUC of the female model was 0.866(95%CI: 0.860-0.872). Conclusion The predictive model for coronary heart disease has good predictive ability in the health management cohort.

Key words: Coronary heart disease, Health management cohort, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R541.4
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