JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 66-71.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.358

Previous Articles     Next Articles

A prediction model for coronary heart disease risks based on health management cohort

WANG Chunxia1, XU Yibo2,3, YANG Ning1, XIA Bing1, WANG Ping4, XUE Fuzhong2,3   

  1. 1. Health Management Center, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining 272000, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    4. Operating Room of Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

PDF (PC)

298

Abstract: Objective To establish a risk predicting model for coronary heart disease in health management cohort in Shandong province. Methods The cohort consisted of the health management cohort in Shandong province. Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to screen the variables based on other predictive models. We used competing risk prediction model to establish the prediction model, and ten-fold cross validation to test the stability of the model. Results There were 73 386 subjects in the cohort, including 41 968 males and 31 418 females. The median follow-up time was 3.10 years. Coronary heart disease occurred in 1 545 sbujects, including 958 males and 587 females. The incidence density was 5.95 per 1 000 person-years for males and 4.90 per 1 000 person-years for females. The AUC of the male model was 0.809(95CI: 0.804-0.815), and the O/E value was 0.98. The AUC of the female model was 0.869(95%CI: 0.863-0.874), and the O/E value was 1.02. In the ten-fold cross validation model, the AUC of the male model was 0.806(95%CI: 0.801-0.812), and the AUC of the female model was 0.866(95%CI: 0.860-0.872). Conclusion The predictive model for coronary heart disease has good predictive ability in the health management cohort.

Key words: Coronary heart disease, Health management cohort, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R541.4
[1] 隋辉, 陈伟伟, 王文. 《中国心血管病报告2014》要点介绍[J]. 中华高血压杂志, 2015, 23(7): 627-629.
[2] Gerber Y, Tanne D, Medalie JH, et al. Serum uric acid and long-term mortality from stroke, coronary heart disease and all causes[J]. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil, 2006, 13(2): 193-198.
[3] Ford ES, Ajani UA, Croft JB, et al. Explaining the decrease in U.S. deaths from coronary disease, 1980-2000[J]. N Engl J Med, 2007, 356(23): 2388-2398.
[4] D'Agostino RS, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study[J]. Circulation, 2008, 117(6): 743-753.
[5] Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RS, Larson MG, et al. Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study[J]. Circulation, 2009, 119(24): 3078-3084.
[6] Goff DJ, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American college of cardiology/American heart association task force on practice guidelines[J]. Circulation, 2014, 129(25 Suppl 2): S49-S73.
[7] Cuende JI, Cuende N, Calaveras-Lagartos J. How to calculate vascular age with the SCORE project scales: a new method of cardiovascular risk evaluation?[J]. Eur Heart J, 2010, 31(19): 2351-2358.
[8] 中华医学会糖尿病学分会. 中国2型糖尿病防治指南(2013年版)[J]. 中国糖尿病杂志, 2014, 22(8): 2-42.
[9] 中国高血压基层管理指南修订委员会. 中国高血压基层管理指南(2014年修订版)[J]. 中华高血压杂志,2015, 23(1): 24-43.
[10] 诸骏仁, 高润霖, 赵水平, 等. 中国成人血脂异常防治指南(2016年修订版)[J]. 中国循环杂志, 2016, 31(10): 937-953.
[11] 李海彬, 李霞, 王安心, 等. 竞争风险模型及其在Stata软件实现[J]. 中国卫生统计,2016,33(5): 889-891.
[12] Seoane-Pillado MT, Pita-Fernandez S, Valdes-Canedo F, et al. Incidence of cardiovascular events and associated risk factors in kidney transplant patients: a competing risks survival analysis[J]. BMC Cardiovasc Disord, 2017, 17(1): 72. doi: 10.1186/s12872-017-0505-6.
[13] Van Kempen BJ, Ferket BS, Kavousi M, et al. Performance of Framingham cardiovascular disease(CVD)predictions in the Rotterdam Study taking into account competing risks and disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease(CHD)and stroke[J]. Int J Cardiol, 2014, 171(3): 413-418.
[14] Tereshchenko LG, Cygankiewicz I, McNitt S, et al. Predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability index across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction: competing risks of noncardiac or cardiovascular death and sudden or nonsudden cardiac death[J]. Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol, 2012, 5(4): 719-727.
[15] Sadeghpour S, Faghihimani E, Hassanzadeh A, et al. Predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality in type 2 diabetes: a competing risk modeling of an Iranian population[J]. Adv Biomed Res, 2016, 5: 82. doi: 10.4103/2277-9175.182213
[16] Miot A, Ragot S, Hammi W, et al. Prognostic value of resting heart rate on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetic patients: a competing risk analysis in a prospective cohort[J]. Diabetes Care, 2012, 35(10): 2069-2075.
[17] Wilson PW, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, et al. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories[J]. Circulation, 1998, 97(18): 1837-1847.
[18] Wilson PW, Bozeman SR, Burton TM, et al. Prediction of first events of coronary heart disease and stroke with consideration of adiposity[J]. Circulation, 2008, 118(2): 124-130.
[19] Lloyd-Jones D, Adams RJ, Brown TM, et al. Heart disease and stroke statistics-2010 update: a report from the American Heart Association[J]. Circulation, 2010, 121(7): e46-e215. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.192666.
[20] 中国成人血脂异常防治指南修订联合委员会. 《中国成人血脂异常防治指南(2016年修订版)》补充说明[J]. 中国循环杂志, 2017, 32(1): 53.
[21] Mosca L, Barrett-Connor E, Wenger NK. Sex/gender differences in cardiovascular disease prevention: what a difference a decade makes[J]. Circulation, 2011, 124(19): 2145-2154.
[22] Conroy RM, Pyorala K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project[J]. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24(11): 987-1003.
[23] Gorenoi V, Schonermark MP, Hagen A. Assessments tools for risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases[J]. GMS Health Technol Assess, 2009, 5: c11. doi: 10.3205/hta000073.
[24] Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, et al. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study[J]. BMJ, 2007, 335(7611): 136. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39261.471806.55.
[25] Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, et al. Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2[J]. BMJ, 2008, 336(7659): 1475-1482.
[1] LI Jiqing, ZHAO Huanzong, SONG Binghong, ZHANG Lichun, LI Xiangyi, CHEN Yafei, WANG Ping, XUE Fuzhong. Risk prediction model of cardiovascular disease based on health management cohort [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 56-60.
[2] YU Tao, LIU Huanle, FENG Xin, XU Fuyin, CHEN Yafei, XUE Fuzhong, ZHANG Chengqi. A hypertension risk prediction model based on health management cohort [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 61-65.
[3] ZHANG Guang, WANG Guangyin, WU Hongyan, ZHANG Hongyu, WANG Tingting, LI Jiqing, LI Min, KANG Fengling, LIU Yanxun, XUE Fuzhong. A prediction model of hyperlipidemia risk based on the health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 72-76.
[4] SU Ping, YANG Yachao, YANG Yang, JI Jiadong, DAYIMU Alimu, LI Min, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun. Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 82-86.
[5] ZHOU Miao, XIA Tongyao, SUN Ailing, LI Ming, SHEN Zhenwei, BIAN Weiwei, JIANG Zheng, KANG Fengling, LIU Xiaojuan, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Jing. Risk prediction model of chronic kidney disease in health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 98-103.
[6] YU Yuanyuan, WANG Chunxia, SU Ping, SUN Yuanying, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun. A prediction model to estimate risks of cataract based on health management cohort [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 104-107.
[7] QU Qingxi, ZHAO Xin, SUN Wenyu, SONG Guangmin, MENG Xiangbin, BI Yanwen. Treatment of coronary heart diseases complicated with carotid arteriostenosis with coronary artery bypass grafting plus carotid endarterectomy [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2015, 53(5): 71-74.
[8] LIU Tianjiao, GUO Yuan, LI Tingting, ZHANG Jianning, LI Jun, ZHANG Peng. Association of serum CTRP9 and APN levels with acute coronary syndrome [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2014, 52(9): 58-62.
[9] JIANG Hongmei1,2， CHEN Wenqiang1. Clinical implication of psychotherapy on elderly patients with coronary heart failure undergoing rehabilitation [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2014, 52(4): 85-88.
[10] CHEN Wei, TAN Hong, LI Xiao-yan, YANG Yan, WEI Xiu-ying, CHEN Ying-jian, ZHANG Hong-ming. Quantity variance of endothelial progenitor cells in peripheral blood of patients
with coronary heart disease and its influence on endothelial function [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2012, 50(8): 73-76.
[11] YUAN Xin, ZHENG Zhe, HU Sheng-shou. Application value of EuroSCORE in predicting readmission
after coronary artery bypass graft [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2012, 50(8): 77-80.
[12] CHEN Jing1, GENG Hou-fa2, SUN Lin2. Correlation between FTO rs9939609 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with coronary heart disease [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2012, 50(7): 10-.
[13] ZHU Qing1，3, KANG Wei-qiang1，2, GE Zhi-ming4, SONG Da-lin2, WANG Hai-bin2, REN Guo-rui2. Relation of glycated serum album and vulnerable plaque  characteristics in patients with CHD [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2011, 49(7): 100-104.
[14] WANG Chun, GU Tianxiang, YU Yang, SONG Lai-chun, ZHANG Yu-hai, FANG Qin. Retrospective analysis of the relationship between high risk predicted by  EuroSCORE and low operative mortality in 1290 cases of OPCAB surgery [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2011, 49(7): 109-.
[15] SUN Jie, REN Jian-Min, CHEN Chao, LIU Chang-Sheng, SI Qing-Ying. [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2009, 47(5): 102-105.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Copyright 2018 © Editorial office of Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences)
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd