JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 61-65.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.357

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A hypertension risk prediction model based on health management cohort

YU Tao1,2, LIU Huanle3, FENG Xin4, XU Fuyin4, CHEN Yafei1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, ZHANG Chengqi5   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Health Care, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, Dongying 257000, Shandong, China;
    4. Health Management Center, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, Dongying 257000, Shandong, China;
    5. Health Management Center, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To establish a prediction model for the risk of hypertension based on health management cohort. Methods Based on Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management and after exclusion of participants with baseline hypertension, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and other related diseases, a cohort with 22 177 subjects, including 12 044 males and 10 133 females, was established. Cox regression was used to construct prediction models for hypertension in males and females. The effect of model prediction was evaluated. Results A total of 4 571 new hypertention cases were observed, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 62.84/1 000 person years. The risk factors of the model for males included age, body mass index, systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, fasting blood-glucose and hematocrit. The estimated AUC of the model was 0.821(95%CI: 0.812-0.830). In the model for females, the risk factors included age, body mass index, systolic pressure, red blood cell and high density lipoprotein cholesterol. The estimated AUC of the model was 0.818(95%CI: 0.806-0.828). Ten-fold cross validation showed that the estimated AUC of the model for males was 0.819(95%CI: 0.810-0.828)and 0.814(95%CI: 0.803-0.825) 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -于涛,等.基于健康管理队列的高血压风险预测模型 \=-for females. Conclusion The model has good prediction ability and could be used to identify individuals with high risk of hypertension.

Key words: Health management cohort, Prediction model, Hypertension

CLC Number: 

  • R544.1
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