JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 56-60.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.356

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Risk prediction model of cardiovascular disease based on health management cohort

LI Jiqing1,2, ZHAO Huanzong3, SONG Binghong3, ZHANG Lichun3, LI Xiangyi1,2, CHEN Yafei1,2, WANG Ping4, XUE Fuzhong1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Health Examination Center, Linyi Peoples Hospital, Linyi 276000, Shandong, China;
    4. Operating Room of Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To establish a model to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease(CVD)among health management population. Methods The cohort consisted of 72 843 individuals who had physical check-up at Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management. They were all free of CVD events. We randomly divided the cohort into the training group(70%)and testing group(30%). Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to choose risk factors of CVD, competing risk prediction model was used to establish a prediction model for CVD, and ten-fold cross validation was used to test the stability of the model. Discriminatory ability was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC). Results There were 2 463 CVD cases during the study period and the incidence was 88.79/1 000 person-year, and 164 people died of other causes. The risk factors included age, 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -李吉庆,等.基于健康管理队列的心血管事件风险预测模型 \=-smoke, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, ST-T segment changes, T wave change, abnormal Q wave, arrhythmia and chronic kidney diseases. The estimated AUC of the model in the training group was 0.837(95%CI: 0.821-0.854)for males and 0.897(95%CI:0.880-0.913)for females. The estimated AUC of the model in the testing group was 0.838(95%CI:0.813-0.862)for males and 0.893(95%CI:0.872-0.914)for females. Conclusion The risk prediction model can be used to screen high-risk subjects of CVD in health management population.

Key words: Cardiovascular event, Health management, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R541
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