JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 82-86.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.347

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Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population

SU Ping1,2, YANG Yachao3, YANG Yang1,2, JI Jiadong1,2, DAYIMU Alimu1,2, LI Min1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, LIU Yanxun1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Physical Examination Department, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-20 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To construct prediction models to estimate the risks of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)in 3 years among the health management population in mainland China. Methods Non-diabetic people aged 20 to 75 years at the baseline were chosen from Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management to compose our cohort. Coxs proportional hazards regression model was adopted to build T2DM prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)was used to evaluate the predictability of the model. Ten-fold cross-validation was adopted to test the stability of the model. Results During the follow-up of 3.68±2.8 years, 1,624 cases of new-onset diabetes occurred. The incidence density of male and female was 15.00‰ and 10.83‰, respectively. The risk factors for the male model included age, body mass index(BMI), fasting plasma glucose(FPG), triglyceride, alanine aminotransferase(ALT), and white blood cell(WBC)count. The risk factors 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -苏萍,等.健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型 \=-for the female model included age, FPG, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C), and ALT. The AUC of the male model and female model was 0.795(95% CI: 0.764-0.827)and 0.707(95%CI: 0.654-0.759), respectively. Conclusion The male and female prediction models we constructed have high predictability and reliability among the health management population.

Key words: Cohort study, Coxs proportional hazards regression, Type 2 diabetes, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R587.1
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