JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 108-113.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.341

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A prediction model of 5-year CVD risks for type 2 diabetic patients: a prospective cohort study among Chinese community population

ZHANG Zhentang1, YANG Yang2,3, HAN Fujun1, CHEN Xianghua1, JI Xiaokang3,4, WANG Yongchao3,5, WANG Shukang2,3, SUN Yuanying2,3, LI Min2,3, CHEN Yafei2,3, WANG Li6, XUE Fuzhong2,3, LIU Yanxun2,3   

  1. 1. Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Huangdao District, Qingdao 266400, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    4. Information Processing Laboratory, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    5. Kangping Health Care Big Data Technology Company Limited, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China;
    6. Department of Cardiology, Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-19 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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Abstract: Objective To construct a prediction model for risks of cardio-cerebrovascular disease(CVD)in 5 years for newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients in China. Methods We collected from an official chronic disease prevention and control project 2 899 participants newly diagnosed as diabetic who were free from CVD events. Cox proportional 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -张振堂,等.基于社区2型糖尿病患者的心脑血管事件5年风险预测模型 \=-hazards regression model was used to construct a 5-year CVD risk model. Calibration and goodness of fit test were applied. External validation based on Shandong Multi-center Health Management Large Database was adopted to assess the stability of model. Results a total of 228 first CVD events were recorded in the derivation cohort during an average follow-up of 4.7 years(16.86/1 000 person-year). The 6 variables included age, gender, systolic pressure, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein and family history of CVD. In the derivation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)for the Cox model and scoring model was 0.678(95%CI: 0.660-0.695)and 0.663(95%CI: 0.648-0.680), respectively. In the external validation, the AUC for the Cox model and scoring model was 0.640(95%CI: 0.608-0.676)and 0.631(95% CI:0.600-0.661), respectively. Conclusion We have established a model to predict the 5-year risks of CVD in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, which can be used for the early intervention of CVD among type 2 diabetic patients in residential communities.

Key words: Complication, Cardio-cerebrovascular disease, Community management, Diabetes, Prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R587.1
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