JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2016, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (9): 87-91.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.042

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Use of SIR model in evaluation of control measures for adults measles outbreak

LUO Cheng1, XU Qing2, SUN Lin3, ZHANG Tao1, LI Runzi1, LIU Yanxun1, XUE Fuzhong1, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Immunization Manage, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    3. Institute for Financial Studies, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-01-12 Online:2016-09-10 Published:2016-09-10

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Abstract: Objective A susceptible-infectious-recovered(SIR)model was established to describe the process of measles outbreak, and to analyze the control effect of vaccination and optimal control strategy. Methods Under the special circumstances, we adopted Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)to estimate the parameters of the model based on the real infected numbers. We calculated the basic reproduction number(R0)and effective reproduction number(Rt)base on rational assumptions to analyze the control effect of vaccination. Results The effective contact rate β was 0.001 06, the recovery rate γ was 0.117 and R0 was 2.96. The percentage of patients could reduce by 90.6% if emergency vaccination was used the second day after outbreak. On the 26th day, Rt<1, and the disease would fade away even if there were no vaccination. Conclusion The SIR model is suitable for studying adults’ measles outbreak, and it is close to real situation in estimating parameters.

Key words: Mathematical models of infectious diseases, Measles, SIR Model, Basic Reproduction Number, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

CLC Number: 

  • R183.9
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