Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 20-24.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0775

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Construction of SEIQCR epidemic model and its application in the evaluation of public health interventions on COVID-19 in Guangzhou

XU Lijun1*, LIU Wenhui2*, LIU Yuan2, LI Meixia2, LUO Lei2, OU Chunquan1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, Guangdong, China;
    2. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510515, Guangdong, China
  • Online:2020-10-10 Published:2020-10-08

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Abstract: Objective To develop a dynamic model of susceptible(S), exposed people in the latent period(E), infective(I), quarantined(Q), confirmed(C), and recovered(R)(SEIQCR)to evaluate the role of interventions and control the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic in Guangzhou. Methods Based on the SEIR propagation dynamics model, the modules of “quarantined” and “confirmed” cases were added to establish a new SEIQCR model. The epidemic data in Guangzhou from Jan. 13 to Mar. 17, 2020 were fitted to obtain the parameters of SEIQCR model. Results The number of predicted cases based on these parameters was highly consistent with the actual incidence(R2=0.93). Time-dependent reproduction number declined rapidly with the implementation of first level response to COVID-19, indicating that local transmission was effectively controlled. Conclusion The preventative and control measures were effective. Local government should continue strictly implementing the isolation system and cut off the transmission channels to curb the transmission of COVID-19. The SEIQCR model can provide methodological reference for intervention assessment in other regions.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Intervention effect, SEIQCR model

CLC Number: 

  • R181.2
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