Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 38-43.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0642

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Epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Xinyang City, Henan Province

LI Chunyu1, ZHU Yuchen1, QI Chang1, LIU Lili1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, XU Xueli2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Xinyang Pingqiao District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xinyang 464100, Henan, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

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Abstract: Objective To explore epidemic dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Xinyang City so as to provide scientific basis for optimizing the prevention and control strategies and evaluating the effects of intervention. Methods The epidemic data of official report was collected. The date of infection was determined to estimate the incubation period. At the same time, the infectious disease dynamic model of SEIR was constructed to analyze the development of disease and the dynamic changes of epidemic situations when the time of implementing prevention and control policies was changed. Results A total of 274 cases were reported in Xinyang City, with the incidence rate of 3.72 out of 100 000. The median incubation period was 6.00(4.00, 7.25)days. Model analysis showed that the basic reproductive number(R0)was 2.86 and the effective reproductive number decreased to 0.29 after the prevention and control measures were taken. If prevention and control measures were taken three days in advance, the number of cases would reduce by 50.5%, while three days later, the number of cases would double. Conclusion The epidemic spread rapidly in Xinyang City, but was quickly controlled under the strong prevention and control measures of the state.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Epidemic feature, Dynamic model of infectious disease, Basic reproductive number, Prevention and control strategy

CLC Number: 

  • R183
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