Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 32-37.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0683

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Reproduction number estimation and epidemic analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in Shandong Province based on Poisson process

ZHU Yuchen1, LI Chunyu1, QI Chang1, WANG Ying1, LIU Lili1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, KANG Dianmin2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

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Abstract: Objective To explore the epidemic dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Shandong Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the future prevention and control of new outbreaks of COVID-19 and other emerging infectious diseases. Methods After collecting the information of 559 confirmed cases with COVID-19 reported by the Shandong Provincial Health Commission and determining the infection date of the cases, a propagation model was established based on the Poisson process and the basic reproduction number and instantaneous reproduction number were calculated during the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong Province. The results obtained by calculating the instantaneous reproduction numbers based on sequential Bayesian and time-dependent methods were compared. Results The difference between the date of onset of a confirmed case and the date when it was reported generally followed the Weibull distribution. When the COVID-19 outbreak started in Shandong Province, the basic reproduction number(R0)was 2.64(95%CI:1.37-4.51), and the instantaneous reproduction number showed a gradually downward trend with time. Three calculation methods all showed the same trend. Conclusion After the intervention of prevention and control measures, the local epidemic of COVID-19 in Shandong Province has basically ended, but the constant vigilance is necessary in order to prevent the second outbreak of the epidemic.

Key words: Coronavirus pneumonia disease 2019, Basic reproductive number, Instantaneous reproduction number, Poisson process, Bayesian inference

CLC Number: 

  • R183
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