Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 44-52.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0744

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Epidemiological characteristics and incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 in Anhui Province

SHE Kaili1, ZHANG Dandan1, QI Chang1, LIU Tingxuan1, JIA Yan1, ZHU Yuchen1, LI Chunyu1, LIU Lili1, WANG Xu1, SU Hong2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

PDF (PC)

196

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incubation of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)from Jan. 22 to Mar. 8, 2020 in Anhui Province, in order to provide the basis for further understanding of the transmission pattern of COVID-19 and formulating regional control measures. Methods Based on the data released by the provincial and municipal health committees, global and local aggregation analyses were performed with spatial autocorrelation statistical method to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui. The distribution of COVID-19 incubation was estimated with reference to the exposure and onset time. Results A total of 990 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6 deaths were reported in Anhui. The crude mortality rate was 0.61%. Since the first case was confirmed, the number of cases increased rapidly, with a maximum of 74 in a single day on Feb. 6, and then gradually declined. The patients aged 8 months to 91 years, and the majority(65.19%)were 31 to 60 years old. The male to female ratio was 1.16∶1, and there were many cluster cases. From Jan. 22 to 29, 75% of the cases had exposure history to Hubei and then the proportion decreased significantly. By Mar. 8, there were confirmed cases in 16 cities, among which Hefei, Fuyang and Bengbu were mostly affected by the epidemic. There was obvious spatial autocorrelation of the cases. Before Jan. 31, most cases were imported from Hubei while local cases were sporadic, and then local contact spread the infection. The Gamma distribution fitted well, indicating the median incubation of COVID-19 was 5.64(95%CI: 5.11-6.22)days. Conclusion The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui Province are similar to those in other provinces. Early prevention and control measures have achieved phased results. With the resumption of work and production in various areas, the prevention and control efforts need to be consolidated to prevent the epidemic from rebounding.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Epidemiological characteristics, Exposure history, Incubation period

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
[1] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 国家卫生健康委关于新型冠状病毒肺炎暂命名事宜的通知[EB/OL].(2020-02-08)[2020-05-02]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202002/18c1bb43965a4492907957875de02ae7.shtml.
[2] 央视网. 8名病毒性肺炎患者出院 病原体初步判定为新型冠状病毒[EB/OL].(2020-01-09)[2020-05-02]. http://news.cctv.com/2020/01/09/ARTI1qaoXDCwfiFM5UPAnNy9200109.shtml.
[3] Gorbalenya AE, Baker SC, Baric RS, et al. The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2[J]. Nat Microbiol, 2020, 5(4): 536-544.
[4] WHO. WHO Director-Generals opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19- 11 March 2020[EB/OL].(2020-03-11)[2020-05-02]. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19 - -11-march-2020.
[5] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 截至4月1日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况[EB/OL].(2020-04-02)[2020-05-02]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202004/be27dc3c4a9544b081e2233537e762c3.shtml.
[6] 安徽省卫生健康委员会. 3月9日安徽省报告新冠肺炎疫情情况[EB/OL].(2020-03-09)[2020-05-02]. http://wjw.ah.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/51946601.html.
[7] 陈伟, 王晴, 李媛秋, 等. 我国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情早期围堵策略概述[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2020, 54(3): 239-244. CHEN Wei, WANG Qing, LI Yuanqiu, et al. Early containment strategies and core measures for prevention and control of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020,54(3): 239-244.
[8] 安徽省卫生健康委员会. 安徽省决定启动重大公共卫生事件一级响应[EB/OL].(2020-01-24)[2020-05-02]. http://wjw.ah.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/51944171.html.
[9] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 国家卫生健康委办公厅关于印发新型冠状病毒肺炎防控方案(第六版)的通知[EB/OL].(2020-03-07)[2020-05-02]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202003/4856d5b0458141fa9f376853224d41d7.shtml.
[10] 邹旋, 吴永胜, 刘晓剑, 等. 深圳市新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应策略和措施效果评价[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41. doi:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200316-00360. ZOU Xuan, WU Yongsheng, LIU Xiaojian, et al. Evaluation of the emergency response strategies and measures on the epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2020, 41. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200316-00360.
[11] 安徽省人民政府. 安徽省人民政府办公厅关于延迟企业复工和学校开学的通知[EB/OL].(2020-01-29)[2020-05-02]. http://www.ah.gov.cn/public/1681/8257661.html.
[12] 安徽省卫生健康委员会. 全省16个市对村组小区实行封闭式管理[EB/OL].(2020-02-08)[2020-05-02]. http://wjw.ah.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/51945031.html.
[13] Moran PAP. 1950. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J]. Biometrika, 1950, 37(1-2): 17-23.
[14] Anselin L. Local Indicators of Spatial Association—LISA[J]. Geogr Analy, 1995, 27(2): 93-115.
[15] Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, et al. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: a statistical analysis of publicly available case data[J]. J Clin Med, 2020, 9(2):538.
[16] Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, et al. The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application[J]. Ann Intern Med, 2020, 172(9): 577-582.
[17] 中国疾病预防控制中心新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应机制流行病学组. 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(2): 145-151. Epidemiology Working Group for NCIP Epidemic Response. The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases(COVID-19)in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2020, 41(2): 145-151.
[18] Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, et al. Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study[J]. Lancet Infect Dis, 2020, 20(7): 793-802.
[19] Chan JF, Yuan S, Kok K, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster[J]. Lancet, 2020, 395(10223): 514-523.
[20] Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, et al. Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review[J]. Lancet Infect Dis, 2009, 9(5): 291-300.
[21] Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Ho L, et al. The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients[J]. Ann Intern Med, 2004, 141(9): 662-673.
[22] Assiri A, Mcgeer A, Perl TM, et al. Hospital outbreak of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus[J]. N Engl J Med, 2013, 369(5): 407-416.
[23] 胡建雄, 何冠豪, 刘涛, 等. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期湖北省输出风险评估[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2020, 54(4): 362-366. HU Jianxiong, HE Guanhao, LIU Tao, et al. Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 54(4): 362-366.
[1] WANG Bin, BU Xuehui, KONG Xianggen, ZHANG Zhaohua, WU Anzhao, XIAO Di, JIANG Xuemei. Comparison of the clinical characteristics between 37 adults and 10 children with COVID-19 [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 112-116.
[2] WANG Ling, CAO Haixia, ZHANG Ling, ZHANG Wenna, PAN Yanping, SHI Ying, ZHANG Wei, CUI Feng. Investigation and analysis of the characteristics of a family cluster of coronavirus disease 2019 in Zibo [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 100-104.
[3] BAI Yao, CHEN Zhijun, SONG Shuxuan, HE Zhen, CHEN Baozhong, SHAO Zhongjun, LIU Kun. Investigation of a family cluster outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 in Xian [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 95-99.
[4] ZHANG Hui, SONG Shuxuan, LIU Jifeng, HE Zhen, SHAO Zhongjun, LIU Kun. Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Xi’an city [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 89-94.
[5] LIU Lili, JIA Yan, QI Chang, ZHU Yuchen, LI Chunyu, SHE Kaili, LIU Tingxuan, LI Xiujun. Clustering distribution of COVID-19 in Wenzhou from January to March 2020 based on spatiotemporal analysis [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 82-88.
[6] LIU Tingxuan, QI Chang, SHE Kaili, JIA Yan, ZHU Yuchen, LI Chunyu, LIU Lili, WANG Xu, ZHANG Zhihua, LI Xiujun. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of COVID-19 in Hebei Province [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 74-81.
[7] JIA Yan, LI Chunyu, LIU Lili, SHE Kaili, LIU Tingxuan, ZHU Yuchen, QI Chang, ZHANG Dandan, WANG Xu, CHEN Enfu, LI Xiujun. Epidemic characteristics and spatial analysis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 66-73.
[8] LIU Jun, LI Huan, ZHANG Shiyu, ZHANG Peng, AI Siqi, TIAN Fei, LIN Hualiang. Risk factors of severe and critical patients with COVID-19 in Hubei, China [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 60-65.
[9] QI Chang, ZHU Yuchen, LI Chunyu, LIU Lili, ZHANG Dandan, WANG Xu, SHE Kaili, CHEN Ming, KANG Dianmin, LI Xiujun. Influence factors of COVID-19 in Shandong Province based on geographically weighted generalized linear model [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 53-59.
[10] LI Chunyu, ZHU Yuchen, QI Chang, LIU Lili, ZHANG Dandan, WANG Xu, XU Xueli, LI Xiujun. Epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Xinyang City, Henan Province [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 38-43.
[11] JIN Xinye, LU Zhenzhen, DING Zhongxing, CHEN Feng, PENG Zhihang. A dynamic modeling study on the effects of Wuhan traffic control and centralized quarantine measures on COVID-19 epidemic [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 25-31.
[12] XU Lijun, LIU Wenhui, LIU Yuan, LI Meixia, LUO Lei, OU Chunquan. Construction of SEIQCR epidemic model and its application in the evaluation of public health interventions on COVID-19 in Guangzhou [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 20-24.
[13] LI Xiujun, LI Xinlou, LIU Kun, ZHAO Xiaobo, MA Meng, SUN Bo. Application of geographic information system in the control of COVID-19 epidemic [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 13-19.
[14] YU Xiaolin, ZHANG Jun, YANG Liu, ZHOU Lin, CUI Liangliang, ZHANG Ji. Epidemiological characteristics of COPD patients attacked by respiratory system diseases during the flu season in Jinan City [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(3): 79-82.
[15] WANG Hao, ZHANG Na, XUE Fuzhong, WANG Ping, KANG Dianmin, LIU Yanxun. Spatial epidemiological characteristics of HIV infections and AIDS patients in Shandong Province [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2015, 53(2): 81-86.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Copyright 2018 © Editorial office of Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences)
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd