Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 66-73.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0746

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Epidemic characteristics and spatial analysis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province

JIA Yan1, LI Chunyu1, LIU Lili1, SHE Kaili1, LIU Tingxuan1, ZHU Yuchen1, QI Chang1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, CHEN Enfu2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

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Abstract: Objective To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease(COVID-19)in Zhejiang Province and to determine the correlation between number of confirmed cases and geographical demographic factors, so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods Data of COVID-19 cases confirmed during Jan. 21 and Feb. 19, 2020 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The demographic, temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and exposure history were descriptively analyzed. With county as a unit, the spatial autocorrelation was analyzed, and 11 cities were classified with hierarchical clustering. The correlation between number of confirmed cases and geographical demographic factors was determined with Spearman rank correlation analysis. Results 71.44%(848 cases)of the patients were aged 18-60 years, and there was no statistically significant difference between the sexes(P=0.742). The number of daily confirmed new cases reached the peak around Jan. 29 in various cities. After Jan. 30, The majority of daily confirmed new cases had exposure history of other areas. The confirmed cases in various counties and districts of Zhejiang Province showed characteristic of spatial clustering, and the clustering hotspots were some counties of Wenzhou and Taizhou City. The 11 cities were classified into 4 categories: Wenzhou; Ningbo; Hangzhou and Taizhou; other cities. Population size moving in from Wuhan was positively correlated with the number of cases(rs=0.93, P<0.001). Conclusion In the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic, the majority of cases had exposure history of Hubei; in the later stage, reported cases were mainly secondary cases. Clustering hotspots were some counties of Wenzhou and Taizhou City. Currently, the prevention and control of the epidemic in Zhejiang Province has been effective. It is necessary to continue implementing control measures to prevent the outbreak from rebounding in high-risk areas, and to actively respond to the epidemic risk caused by return to work and school. In addition, people from high-risk areas should be strictly monitored and managed.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Zhejiang Province, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation, Cluster analysis

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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