Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (12): 56-61.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.425

Previous Articles     Next Articles

A prediction model for bronchial asthma risk based on a health management population

LIU Xiaojuan1,2, DING Lijie1,2, KANG Fengling1,2, ZHOU Miao1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Online:2017-12-20 Published:2022-09-27

PDF (PC)

346

Abstract: Objective To construct a prediction model for bronchial asthma risks based on a health management population. Methods A cohort consisting of 77,493 non-bronchial asthma individuals at baseline was followed up to detect the incidence of bronchial asthma. The risk factors were screened with a single-variable Cox regression model. The selected risk factors were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model and backwards method. Then a Cox risk prediction model was constructed. The validation and predictive ability of the model were evaluated with the area under the receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve. The stability of the model was tested with ten-fold cross validation method. Results During the 9-year follow-up, 134 new cases of bronchial asthma were observed. The variables finally included in the prediction model were age, eosinophil count(EOS), low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C), rhinitis history, trachea-bronchitis history and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)history. The area under the ROC curve(95%CI)of the model was 0.725(0.673-0.778), and the area under the ROC curve(95%CI)of the ten-fold cross validation result was 0.707(0.647-0.767). Conclusion A prediction model for bronchial asthma risks has been constructed.

Key words: Bronchial asthma, Prediction model, Cohort study, Cox regression, Health management population

CLC Number: 

  • R562.2
[1] Horak F, Doberer D, Eber E, et al. Diagnosis and management of asthma-Statement on the 2015 GINA Guidelines[J]. Wien Klin Wochenschr, 2016, 128(15-16): 541-554.
[2] Bateman ED, Hurd SS, Barnes PJ, et al. Global strategy for asthma management and prevention: GINA executive summary[J]. Eur Respir J, 2008, 31(1): 143-178.
[3] 苏楠. 我国8省市支气管哮喘患者控制水平的流行病学调查[J]. 中华内科杂志, 2014, 53(8): 601-606. SU Nan. An epidemiological survey of current asthma control status in China[J]. Chin J Intern Med, 2014, 53(8): 601-606.
[4] Lang DM. Severe asthma: epidemiology, burden of illness, and heterogeneity[J]. Allergy Asthma Proc, 2015, 36(6): 418-424.
[5] Barnes PJ. Severe asthma: advances in current management and future therapy[J]. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2012, 129(1): 48-59.
[6] Himes BE, Dai Y, Kohane IS, et al. Prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)in asthma patients using electronic medical records[J]. J Am Med Inform Assoc, 2009, 16(3): 371-379.
[7] Wildman MJ, Sanderson C, Groves J, et al. Predicting mortality for patients with exacerbations of COPD and Asthma in the COPD and Asthma Outcome Study(CAOS)[J]. QJM, 2009, 102(6): 389-399.
[8] Corren J. Asthma phenotypes and endotypes: an evolving paradigm for classification[J]. Discov Med, 2013, 15(83): 243-249.
[9] Matsui T. Sudden asthma death: etiology and prevention[J]. Nihon Rinsho, 2005, 63(7): 1214-1219.
[10] Gullach AJ, Risgaard B, Lynge TH, et al. Sudden death in young persons with uncontrolled asthma-a nationwide cohort study in Denmark[J]. BMC Pulm Med, 2015, 15:35. doi:10.1186/s12890-015-0033-z.
[11] Iribarren C, Tolstykh IV, Miller MK, et al. Adult asthma and risk of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure: a prospective study of 2 matched cohorts[J]. Am J Epidemiol, 2012, 176(11): 1014-1024.
[12] Tattersall MC, Guo M, Korcarz CE, et al. Asthma predicts cardiovascular disease events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis[J]. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol, 2015, 35(6): 1520-1525.
[13] Liu DW, Zhen XG, Liang Y, et al. Persistent asthma increases the risk of chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study of 2354 patients with asthma[J]. Chin Med J(Engl), 2013, 126(21): 4093-4099.
[14] Huang HL, Ho SY, Li CH, et al. Bronchial asthma is associated with increased risk of chronic kidney disease[J]. BMC Pulm Med, 2014, 14: 80. doi: 10.1186/1471-2466-14-80.
[15] Taylor DR. Biomarkers of inflammation in asthma: a clinical perspective[J]. Semin Respir Crit Care Med, 2012, 33(6): 620-629.
[16] Bannier MA, van de Kant KD, Jobsis Q, et al. Biomarkers to predict asthma in wheezing preschool children[J]. Clin Exp Allergy, 2015, 45(6): 1040-1050.
[17] Zein JG, Dweik RA, Comhair SA, et al. Asthma is more severe in older adults[J]. PLoS One, 2015, 10(7): e0133490. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133490.
[18] Tamimi A, Serdarevic D, Hanania NA. The effects of cigarette smoke on airway inflammation in asthma and COPD: therapeutic implications[J]. Respir Med, 2012, 106(3): 319-328.
[19] Liu T, Valdez R, Yoon PW, et al. The association between family history of asthma and the prevalence of asthma among US adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999—2004[J]. Genet Med, 2009, 11(5): 323-328.
[20] Pescatore AM, Dogaru CM, Duembgen L, et al. A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough[J]. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2014, 133(1): 111-118.
[21] Klaassen EM, van de Kant KD, Jöbsis Q, et al. Exhaled biomarkers and gene expression at preschool age improve asthma prediction at 6 years of age[J]. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2015, 191(2): 201-207.
[22] Devulapalli CS, Carlsen KC, Håland G, et al. Severity of obstructive airways disease by age 2 years predicts asthma at 10 years of age[J]. Thorax, 2008, 63(1): 8-13.
[23] van der Mark LB, van Wonderen KE, Mohrs J, et al. Predicting asthma in preschool children at high risk presenting in primary care: development of a clinical asthma prediction score[J]. Prim Care Respir J, 2014, 23(1): 52-59.
[24] Luo G, Nkoy FL, Stone BL, et al. A systematic review of predictive models for asthma development in children[J]. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak, 2015, 15: 99. doi: 10.1186/s12911-015-0224-9.
[25] 中华医学会呼吸病学分会哮喘学组. 支气管哮喘防治指南(2016年版)[J]. 中华结核和呼吸杂志, 2016, 39(9): 1-24.
[26] Scichilone N, Rizzo M, Benfante A, et al. Serum low density lipoprotein subclasses in asthma[J]. Respir Med, 2013, 107(12): 1866-1872.
[27] Rasmussen F, Hancox RJ, Nair P, et al. Associations between airway hyperresponsiveness, obesity and lipoproteins in a longitudinal cohort[J]. Clin Respir J, 2013, 7(3): 268-275.
[28] Furuta GT, Atkins FD, Lee NA, et al. Changing roles of eosinophils in health and disease[J]. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol, 2014, 113(1): 3-8.
[29] Brightling CE. Eosinophils, bronchitis and asthma: pathogenesis of cough and airflow obstruction[J]. Pulm Pharmacol Ther, 2011, 24(3): 324-327.
[30] Meijer RJ, Postma DS, Kauffman HF, et al. Accuracy of eosinophils and eosinophil cationic protein to predict steroid improvement in asthma[J]. Clin Exp Allergy, 2002, 32(7): 1096-1103.
[31] 张娟, 朱建波,赵铭山. 嗜酸性粒细胞在支气管哮喘发病中作用的研究进展[J]. 中外医疗, 2011, 30(8):179, 181.
[32] Khan DA. Allergic rhinitis and asthma: epidemiology and common pathophysiology[J]. Allergy Asthma Proc, 2014, 35(5): 357-361.
[33] Boulay ME, Morin A, Laprise C, et al. Asthma and rhinitis: what is the relationship?[J]. Curr Opin Allergy Clin Immunol, 2012, 12(5): 449-454.
[34] Nakagome K, Nagata M. Pathogenesis of airway inflammation in bronchial asthma[J]. Auris Nasus Larynx, 2011, 38(5): 555-563.
[1] HE Shiqing, LI Wanwan, DONG Shuqing, MOU Jingyi, LIU Yuying, WEI Siyu, LIU Zhao, ZHANG Jiaxin. Construction of a prognostic risk model of pyroptosis-related genes in breast cancer based on database [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2022, 60(8): 34-43.
[2] MI Qi, SHI Shuang, LI Juan, LI Peilong, DU Lutao, WANG Chuanxin. Construction of circRNA-mediated ceRNA network and prognostic assessment model for bladder cancer [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2021, 59(6): 94-102.
[3] ZHAO Jie, LI Yan, LI Ming, YU Dexin. Spiral CT in differentiating benign and malignant tumors with myxoid degeneration [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2021, 59(4): 100-107.
[4] YANG Xuemei, LI Juan, WANG Yifan, LI Peilong, WANG Yunshan, DU Lutao, WANG Chuanxin. Significance of a three-lncRNAs signature on the prediction of survival for HER2 positive breast cancer patients [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(5): 69-76.
[5] YANG Liping, MU Tingting, YANG Yujuan, ZHANG Yu, SONG Xicheng. Effects of inhaled allergens on pulmonary function in children with adenoid hypertrophy complicated with bronchial asthma [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(3): 107-112.
[6] LI Mingzhuo, SUN Xiubin, WANG Chunxia, YANG Yang, LIU Xinhui, LIU Yanxun, XUE Fuzhong, YUAN Zhongshang. Association between longitudinal changes of HDL-C and coronary heart disease in a population with normal serum lipids: a retrospective cohort study [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2019, 57(8): 110-116.
[7] XU Yuanyou, YANG Yachao, WANG Chunxia, MA Xiaotian, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun, WANG Ping. A risk prediction model of gastritis based on examination cohort [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2019, 57(6): 112-116.
[8] ZHOU Miao, BIAN Weiwei, LIU Xiaojuan, KANG Fengling, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Jing. Association between basophils percentage and chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(3): 85-90.
[9] LI Min, WANG Chunxia, XIA Bing, ZHU Qian, SUN Yuanying, WANG Shukang, XUE Fuzhong, JIA Hongying. A stroke prediction model for the health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 93-97.
[10] ZHOU Miao, XIA Tongyao, SUN Ailing, LI Ming, SHEN Zhenwei, BIAN Weiwei, JIANG Zheng, KANG Fengling, LIU Xiaojuan, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Jing. Risk prediction model of chronic kidney disease in health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 98-103.
[11] SUN Yuanying, YANG Yachao, QU Mingling, CHEN Yanmin, LI Min, WANG Shukang, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yunxia. A prediction model for metabolic syndrome risk: a study based on the health management cohort [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 87-92.
[12] SU Ping, YANG Yachao, YANG Yang, JI Jiadong, DAYIMU Alimu, LI Min, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun. Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 82-86.
[13] LI Jiangbing, SONG Xinhong, LIN Haiyan, ZHANG Dongzhi, LI Xiangyi, XU Yibo, WANG Li, XUE Fuzhong. The influencing factors of ischemic ECG abnormalities in a large health check-up population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 77-81.
[14] ZHANG Guang, WANG Guangyin, WU Hongyan, ZHANG Hongyu, WANG Tingting, LI Jiqing, LI Min, KANG Fengling, LIU Yanxun, XUE Fuzhong. A prediction model of hyperlipidemia risk based on the health management population [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 72-76.
[15] WANG Chunxia, XU Yibo, YANG Ning, XIA Bing, WANG Ping, XUE Fuzhong. A prediction model for coronary heart disease risks based on health management cohort [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 66-71.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Copyright 2018 © Editorial office of Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences)
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd