Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (12): 56-61.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.425

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A prediction model for bronchial asthma risk based on a health management population

LIU Xiaojuan1,2, DING Lijie1,2, KANG Fengling1,2, ZHOU Miao1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Online:2017-12-20 Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To construct a prediction model for bronchial asthma risks based on a health management population. Methods A cohort consisting of 77,493 non-bronchial asthma individuals at baseline was followed up to detect the incidence of bronchial asthma. The risk factors were screened with a single-variable Cox regression model. The selected risk factors were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model and backwards method. Then a Cox risk prediction model was constructed. The validation and predictive ability of the model were evaluated with the area under the receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve. The stability of the model was tested with ten-fold cross validation method. Results During the 9-year follow-up, 134 new cases of bronchial asthma were observed. The variables finally included in the prediction model were age, eosinophil count(EOS), low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C), rhinitis history, trachea-bronchitis history and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)history. The area under the ROC curve(95%CI)of the model was 0.725(0.673-0.778), and the area under the ROC curve(95%CI)of the ten-fold cross validation result was 0.707(0.647-0.767). Conclusion A prediction model for bronchial asthma risks has been constructed.

Key words: Bronchial asthma, Prediction model, Cohort study, Cox regression, Health management population

CLC Number: 

  • R562.2
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