Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2019, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (6): 112-116.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2019.001

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A risk prediction model of gastritis based on examination cohort

XU Yuanyou1,2, YANG Yachao3, WANG Chunxia4, MA Xiaotian1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, LIU Yanxun1,2, WANG Ping5   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Physical Examination Department, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China;
    4. Health Management Center, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining 272000, Shandong, China;
    5. Operating Room of Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To construct a risk prediction model based on the physical examination data. Methods A total of 33 416 non-gastritic subjects who received their first physical examination during May 2004 and Sep. 2016 in multi-centers were involved. The Cox proportional risk model was adopted to perform variable selection by stepwise method. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the stability of the model. Results In the observation period, 842 new gastritis cases were observed. The incidence rate was 2.52% and incidence density was 18.74‰. The variables included age, helicobacter pylori infection, albumin, basophils percentage and lymphocyte count. In the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve, the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.691(95%CI: 0.671-0.710). The AUC after the ten-fold cross-validation was 0.673(95%CI: 0.652-0.694). Conclusion The model we constructed can effectively predict the gastritis risk.

Key words: Examination cohort, Gastritis, Risk prediction model, Cox regression, Ten-fold cross-validation

CLC Number: 

  • R573.3
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