Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors of weaning failure in mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit(ICU), develop a risk prediction model, and perform internal validation to assess the predictive performance. Methods A total of 546 cases of mechanically ventilated patients were collected during Jan. 2020 and Jan. 2022 with convenience sampling method from the ICU of Weifang Peoples Hospital, including 358 collected from Jan. 2020 and Jan. 2021 in the modeling group, and 188 collected from Feb. 2021 to Jan. 2022 in the model testing group. The risk factors of weaning failure were analyzed, based on which a prediction model was developed. The goodness of fit was assessed with Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The prediction performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve, and the area under the ROC curve(AUC). Results The risk factors included mechanical ventilation time(OR=0.993), diaphragm mobility(OR=3.886), diaphragm thickness variability(OR=65.917), shallow fast respiratory index(RSBI, OR=0.960), and inferior vena cava variability(OR=1.176). The model equation was as follows: Z=-0.007×mechanical ventilation time+1.357×diaphragm mobility +4.188×diaphragm thickness variability -0.041×shallow fast respiratory index+ 0.162×inferior vena cava variability -3.183. The AUC was 0.926, with a specificity of 0.961 and a sensitivity of 0.887. Conclusion The risk prediction model demonstrates good performance, which can provide reference for the development and implementation of future interventions.

Key words: Intensive care unit, Mechanical ventilation, Weaning from mechanical ventilation, Prediction model