Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2022, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 89-95.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.0820

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Effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on rotavirus diarrhea among children under 5 years old in Shenzhen City during 2014-2016

HAO Qiang1, GAO Qi1, ZHAO Ran1, WANG Haitao1, LIU Zhidong2, JIANG Baofa1,3   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Personnel Division, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-01-25

Abstract: Objective To investigate the non-linear and lag effects of meteorological factors on rotavirus diarrhea in children under 5 years old in Shenzhen. Methods The correlation between meteorological factors and rotavirus diarrhea in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2016 was analyzed. The effects of temperature and relative humidity on rotavirus diarrhea were analyzed using distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)after controlling for confounding factors including other meteorological variables and long-term trend. Results Low temperature was a risk factor for rotavirus diarrhea. The strongest effects of 5th(13.4 ℃)(RR=1.118, 95%CI: 1.096-1.139)and 25th(19 ℃)(RR=1.076, 95%CI: 1.063-1.090)percentiles of temperature occurred at the lag-11 day. The cumulative effects at the lag-21 day were 6.828(95%CI: 5.059-9.215)and 3.244(95%CI: 2.641-3.985). There were no statistically significant differences at P75(28.2 ℃)and P95(30.1 ℃). Relative humidity was associated with a decreased risk of rotavirus diarrhea. When relative humidity was P5(52.75%), there were adverse effects from the lag day 2 to lag day 16, the strongest lag effect occurred at the lag day 4(RR=1.063, 95%CI: 1.040-1.085), and the lag-21 day cumulative RR was 1.565(95%CI: 1.205-2.032). When the relative humidity was P75(83%)or P95(91%), it had significant protective impacts on rotavirus diarrhea, and the cumulative RR were 0.720(95%CI: 0.663-0.782)and 0.283(95%CI: 0.224-0.358), respectively. Conclusion Temperature and relative humidity have a non-linear and lag pattern on rotavirus diarrhea. Low temperature is a risk factor for rotavirus diarrhea, and there is a significant negative correlation between relative humidity and the number of rotavirus cases. We suggest that relevant departments should strengthen health education for children under 5 years old in the low temperature and low humidity season, and take timely protective measures to prevent the epidemic of rotavirus.

Key words: Rotavirus diarrhea, Temperature, Relative humidity, Distributed lag non-linear model, Lag effect, Cumulative effect

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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