Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 101-106.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.126

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Effect of diurnal temperature range on incidence of measles in Jinan City

WANG Peizhu1, ZHENG Zhaolei1, LI Runzi1, XU Qinqin1, KANG Fengling1, XU Qing2, LI Xiujun1,3   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    3. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the effects of diurnal temperature range(DTR)on measles in Jinan City, Shandong Province. Methods With data of daily measles cases and meteorological data from 1 January, 2005 to 31 December, 2011, we used a distribution lag non-linear model(DLNM)to analyze the effects of DTR on the incidence of measles adjusted for seasonal, long-term trends and other confounding factors. Results A total of 2 198 measles cases were reported in Jinan City from 2005 to 2011, with a sex ratio of 1.28∶1. Children aged <8 months accounted for 20.70% of all cases, children aged ≥8 months and <5 years accounted for 28.43%, patients aged ≥5 and <18 years accounted for 10.92%, and those aged ≥18 accounted for 39.95%. Taking 9.1 ℃ as reference, the risk was the highest when weekly average DTR was the maximum, 13.2 ℃ on lag 2 weeks, as the relative risk(RR)was 1.92(95% CI: 1.47-2.50), when the significant lag range was the maximum. For a 2 ℃ increase in DTR, the risk was the highest in both male and female at 2 weeks lag, with RR values of 1.19(95%CI: 1.08-1.32)and 1.24(95%CI:1.12-1.38)respectively. DTR had the strongest effect on children aged ≥5 and <18 years at 2 weeks lag, with an RR of 1.41(95% CI: 1.15-1.74)and no significant effect on infants aged 8 months and younger. Conclusion The significant impact and lag effect are found between DTR and the incidence of measles in Jinan City. Female and people aged ≥5 and <18 years are more sensitive to DTR. Attention should be paid to DTR, and timely prevention measures should be taken against susceptible population to mitigate the hazard.

Key words: Jinan, Measles, Diurnal temperature range, Distributed lag non-linear model, Relative risk

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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