Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (1): 90-96.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.597

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Effects of temperature on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome based on the distributed lag non-linear models in Qingdao City

XU Qinqin1, LI Runzi1, LIU Yafei1, SUN Yuanying1, ZHENG Zhaolei1, WANG Peizhu1, WANG Zhiqiang2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the effects of temperature on the onset risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City. Methods The daily HFRS cases and meteorological variables in Qingdao City were collected from 1st January 2007 to 31st December 2013. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to analyze the exposure-response relationships between HFRS onset risk and daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. Results With the reference temperature of 0 ℃, when the daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were low(<0 ℃), they had an immediate effect on HFRS onset risk. With the increase of temperature and lag days, the onset risk of HFRS was higher at about 20 days lag, and RR values were 1.06(95% CI: 1.02-1.11), 1.05(95% CI: 1.00-1.10)and 1.07(95% CI: 1.03-1.12), respectively. On the whole, the highest onset risk of HFRS occurred with CRR values being 5.71(95% CI: 1.74-18.76)at mean temperature -8.8 ℃, 4.19(95% CI: 1.62-10.83)at maximum temperature -6.4 ℃, and 4.72(95% CI: 1.19-18.65)at minimum temperature -11.1 ℃. With the increase of temperature(>0 ℃), CRR values firstly increased, then decreased, and the lowest value occurred at the highest temperature. In addition, when the mean temperature ranged in 10 ℃ and 20 ℃, maximum temperature was <0 ℃ and minimum temperature was <20 ℃, HFRS had the greater onset risks(all P<0.05). 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷1期 -许勤勤,等.基于分布滞后非线性模型的青岛市温度与肾综合征出血热的剂量反应关系 \=- Conclusion The effects of temperature variables on the onset risks of HFRS are consistent and lagged. The risk of HFRS is greatest at the lowest temperature.

Key words: Distributed lag non-linear model, Renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever, Temperature, Exposure-response relationships

CLC Number: 

  • R512.8
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