Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 88-94.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.307

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Effect of temperature on the incidence of mumps in Heze City and Weihai City

ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, XU Qinqin1, ZHENG Zhaolei1, WANG Peizhu1, LI Jiqing1, LIU Jing1, XU Qing2, LI Xiujun1,3   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    3. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To provide a reference for the prevention and control of mumps by exploring the impact of daily mean temperature on its incidence during 2012 and 2014 in Heze City and Weihai City of Shandong Province. Methods The daily monitoring data of mumps and meteorological data of Heze City and Weihai City from Jan. 1, 2012 to Dec. 31, 2014 were collected. The distribution lag nonlinear model was constructed to investigate the effects of daily mean temperature on the incidence of mumps when the long-term trends, seasonal trends, day-of-week effects and other meteorological factors were controlled. Results During this period, a total of 2 669 and 1 838 mumps cases were reported in Heze City and Weihai City, respectively, with a higher annual incidence in Heze City. There were more male cases than female cases in both cities, especially among students, infants and scattered children. In Heze City, with the median daily temperature of 16.10 ℃ as a reference, when the lowest daily temperature was -7.10 ℃, the risk of mumps reached the highest on the 8th lag day, RR=1.06(95%CI: 1.00-1.13). In Weihai City, with 12.55 ℃ as a reference, when the lowest daily temperature 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷8期 -张丹丹,等.菏泽市与威海市气温对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响 \=-was -9.20 ℃, the risk of mumps was the highest on lag day 0, RR=1.29(95%CI: 1.00-1.66). Conclusion The daily mean temperature has a nonlinear effect on the incidence of mumps, and it has different lag time in Heze City and Weihai City. The meteorological factors should be closely monitored for effective prevention and control of mumps.

Key words: Meteorological factors, Daily mean temperature, Mumps, Distribution lag nonlinear model

CLC Number: 

  • R183.1
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