Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 151-157.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.1013

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Effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different characteristic populations in Guangzhou

LI Chuanxi1,2, LIU Qiyong2,3, MA Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • Published:2021-12-29

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Abstract: Objective To explore the effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different characteristic populations in Guangzhou and to identify the vulnerable populations. Methods Meteorological data and surveillance data of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou from June to September in 2015-2019 were obtained. The lag effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever were evaluated with generalized additive model, and then subgroup analysis was performed to explore the effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different gender and age groups(<18 years, 18-59 years, ≥60 years). Results During the study period, 7,228 dengue fever cases were reported in Guangzhou, with a median of 22 cases per week. Extreme precipitation events increased the risk of dengue fever in the total population at lag 4 week(RR=1.30, 95%CI: 1.10-1.54). The vulnerable populations were males(RR=1.52, 95%CI: 1.24-1.87, lag 4)and people aged over 60 years(RR=1.99, 95%CI: 1.51-2.63, lag 2). Conclusion Extreme precipitation events increase the risk of dengue fever, and the effects have a certain lag period. Males and the elderly are vulnerable populations. The monitoring and early warning of dengue fever after extreme precipitation events should be strengthened, and corresponding health policies should be developed to deal with the potential risk of dengue fever epidemic after extreme precipitation events.

Key words: Extreme precipitation events, Meteorological factors, Dengue fever, Guangzhou, Generalized additive model

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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