Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 143-150.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.1248

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Impacts of tropical cyclones on the density of aedes albopictus and the incidence of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020

YAN Yu1,2, LI Chuanxi1,2, LIU Qiyong2,3, MA Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • Published:2021-12-29

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Abstract: Objective To explore the association between tropical cyclones, density of aedes albopictus, and incidence of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020. Methods Data of daily tropical cyclones, dengue cases and meteorological factors as well as data of biweekly vector aedes from April to November during 2015-2020 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The impact and lag effect of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and the density of aedes albopictus were analyzed with generalized additive model(GAM). The association between tropical cyclones and the number of daily and biweekly dengue cases was analyzed with age subgroups. Results Tropical cyclones increased the risk of dengue in Zhejiang Province. The strongest effect appeared at lag 0 and lag 2 days, and the risk of dengue fever increased by 0.37 times(RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.06-1.78; RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.09-1.72). The impacts on different ages groups varied. At the lag 3 and 7 days, the risk of the population under 45 increased by 0.51 times(RR=1.51, 95%CI: 1.08-2.13)and 0.58 times(RR=1.58, 95%CI: 1.16-2.16), respectively. The population aged 60 and over had the highest risk(RR=1.64, 95%CI: 1.12-2.04)at lag 5 days. Analysis results of GAM incorporating Breateau Index(BI)showed that the effect of tropical cyclones on the risk of dengue reached the maximum in the half month when tropical cyclones raged over Zhejiang Province. Meanwhile, the population under 45 and over aged 60 had a higher risk. The BI was higher in the half-month affected by tropical cyclones, and the difference was statistically significant. There was no significant difference in BI between tropical cyclone groups with different influence days. Conclusion Tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province are associated with the increase of dengue cases. The age subgroups over 60 years and below 45 years are high-risk groups, who need special prevention measures. As mosquito density increases during tropical cyclones, mosquito vector elimination should be carried out timely to reduce the mosquito density in the area.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Dengue, Breteau index, Generalized additive model

CLC Number: 

  • R373.3+3
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