Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 76-87.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1275

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Impacts of ambient temperature on chronic non-communicable disease mortality in Jinan City, China during 2007-2013: an attributable risk study

LI Jing1,2, WANG Chuangxin3, XU Xin4, YANG Jun5, WANG Chunping1,2, XUE Fuzhong6, LIU Qiyong7,8   

  1. 1. Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China;
    2. “Health Shandong” Major Social Risk Prediction and Governance Collaborative Innovation Center, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China;
    3. Licheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China;
    4. Department of Dentistry, Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261000, Shandong, China;
    5. Jinan University Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, China;
    6. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    7. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    8. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China)〓山〓东〓大〓学〓学〓报〓(医〓学〓版)56卷8期〓-李京, 等.气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究〓\=-〓〓
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To supplement the public health evidence by assessing the relationship between temperature and health adopting attributable risk assessment. Methods Daily data on temperature and non-accidental/cardiovascular/respiratory mortality outcomes were obtained from 2007 to 2013. Attributable risk assessment by distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the relationship of different disease mortality with temperature, and further to explore the risks of temperature on susceptible population. Results The overall cumulative exposure-response curve of temperature-mortality relationship was U-shaped. In total, ambient temperature was attributable 13.2%(95%CI: 9.6-16.8)/17.0%(95%CI: 12.6-20.8)/27.8%(95%CI: -2.5-50.5)to death risks for non-accidental/cardiovascular/respiratory disease, respectively. Females, people ≥65 years and people with low educated level were more vulnerable. Conclusion Both heat and cold are associated with an increased risk of daily mortality, but most mortality burdens are caused by cold.

Key words: Non-accidental death, Cardiovascular disease, Respiratory disease, Temperature, Attributable risk, Mortality

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3+4
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