Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (2): 108-113.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.1105

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Spatial epidemiological characteristics and prediction of tuberculosis in Shigatse City from 2011 to 2018

ZHANG Bei1,2, ZHANG Xiulei3, BASANG Pianduo2, NIMA Ciren2, SHI Dachun2, CIREN Jiabu2, YIN Tingting1, HU Jun4,5   

  1. 1. Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China;
    2. Shigatse Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shigatse 857000, Tibet, China;
    3. Tuberculosis Medicine, Shandong Provincial Chest Hospital, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China;
    4. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    5. Key Laboratory of Health Economics and Policy Research, National Health Commission(Shandong University), Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2021-03-05

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Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and transmission characteristics of tuberculosis in Shigatse City from 2011 to 2018, explore the distribution and aggregation conditions and hot spots, provide scientific basis for prevention and control. Methods Spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspot analysis and Kriging interpolation prediction were used to describe, analyze and predict the spatial distribution of tuberculosis incidence in Shigatse City from 2011 to 2018. Results From 2011 to 2018, the areas with high incidence of tuberculosis in Shigatse City were mainly distributed in Gyangzê County, Kangmar County, Lazi County and Saga. The low incidence areas were mainly distributed in Zhongba County, Saga County and Namling County. Global autocorrelation Morans I index is 0.331 2, Z=2.65, P=0.008 3. The local autocorrelation LISA aggregation map showed that the high-high aggregation areas were Gyangzê County and Bainang County. Low-low concentration area was Saga County. Compared with the local autocorrelation results, the hot spot analysis results showed a new cold point in Zhongba County. The Kriging interpolation prediction results showed that in the future, there would be a new high-risk area in Lazi County and new low-risk areas in Namling County, Yadong County and its neighboring counties. The cross-evaluation index results showed that M-PE=0.003 2, MS-PE=0.038 2, RSS-PE=0.962 2, RMS-PE=0.063 3, and ASE-PE=0.066 5. Conclusion From 2011 to 2018, the spatial distribution of tuberculosis incidence in Shigatse City is unbalanced, and the tuberculosis epidemic in Shigatse City presents positive spatial autocorrelation, with local spatial autocorrelation, hot spots and cold spots co-existing. In the future, areas with high risk and low risk will continue to expand. Therefore, targeted prevention and control work should be carried out.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Geographic information systems, Hot spot analysis, Prediction

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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