Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (12): 103-108.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.551

Previous Articles    

Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in the prediction of viral hepatitis A

LI Xinyang, LI Sujuan, LIU Xiaodi, FAN Antong, YAN Ping, LIU Hongqing   

  1. School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

PDF (PC)

66

Abstract: Objective To establish a multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model, predict the national incidence of hepatitis A, and provide decision-making basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis A. Methods Based on the monthly data of the National Hepatitis A Report from Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2016, the multiple seasonal model of ARIMA was established, whose predictive effect was evaluated with the number of cases from Jan. to Dec. 2017. Results The parameters were below: unseasonal moving=0.282, seasonal moving=0.530, Akaike information criterion(AIC)=815.710, and Schwarz Bayesian criterion(SBC)=819.865. The significance test of the optimal model showed that P<0.05, the model residual white noise test showed that χ2=6.83, 12.38, 15.12 and 18.28 for 6, 12, 18 and 24 orders(P>0.05), and there were no significant differences. Based on the above parameters, ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model was established, and the formula of the model was ∇∇12xt=(1-0.282B)(1-0.530B12)εt. Conclusion The ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model can fit the incidence trend of hepatitis A. It can be used to predict the incidence and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis A in China.

Key words: Hepatitis A, Multiple season model of autoregressive integrated moving average model, Time series, Prediction

CLC Number: 

  • R512.6
[1] 刘尚辉, 娄岩, 邓妍, 等. 我国大陆地区各省不同类型病毒性肝炎报告发病率的系统聚类分析[J].实用预防医学, 2014, 21(6): 641-645. LIU Shanghui, LOU Yan, DENG Yan, et al. Hierarchical clustering analysis on the reported incidence of different types of viral hepatitis in mainland China[J]. Practical Preventive Medicine, 2014, 21(6): 641-645.
[2] 许春杰, 尹素凤, 郭春月, 等. 基于ARIMA-ERNN组合模型预测我国甲肝发病率[J]. 郑州大学学报(医学版), 2016, 51(6): 726-730. XU Chunjie, YIN Sufeng, GUO Chunyue, et al. Forecasting incidence of hepatitis A based on ARIMA-ERNN combination model in China[J]. Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences), 2016, 51(6): 726-730.
[3] 郭在清. 甲、乙型病毒性肝炎控制现状分析与对策[J]. 中外医学研究, 2015, 13(10): 144-145.
[4] 高云云, 李军, 杨海燕, 等. ARIMA模型在河南省甲型病毒性肝炎发病数预测中的应用[J]. 现代预防医学, 2017, 44(7): 1294-1298. GAO Yunyun, LI Jun, YANG Haiyan, et al. Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hepatitis A, Henan Province [J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2017, 44(7): 1294-1298.
[5] 罗佳伟, 张强, 杨书. 基于ARIMA-BPNN的组合模型在重庆市艾滋病发现人数预测中的应用[J].预防医学情报杂志, 2018, 34(3): 247-250. LUO Jiawei, ZHANG Qiang, YANG Shu. Application of ARIMA-BPNN hybrid model in predicting the incidence of AIDS in Chongqing[J]. Journal of Preventive Medicine Information, 2018, 34(3): 247-250.
[6] 曹务春. 传染病流行病学[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2008: 96.
[7] 李滨, 丁善飞. ARIMA乘积季节模型在辽阳市乙型肝炎发病预测中的应用[J]. 微生物学免疫学进展, 2018,46(2): 57-62. LI Bin, DING Shanfei. Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in prediction of hepatitis B prevalence in Liaoyang City [J]. Progress in Microbiology and Immunology, 2018, 46(2):57-62.
[8] 郑骥飞, 尹文强, 于倩倩, 等. 基于ARIMA模型的“十三五”期间卫生总费用趋势预测[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2016, 33(5): 823-825.
[9] 李军,叶莹,马雅婷.河南省2010-2012年甲型病毒性肝炎疫情分析[J].现代预防医学, 2014, 41(12): 2260-2261. LI Jun, YE Ying, MA Yating. Epidemiological analysis on hepatitis A in Henan from 2010 to 2012[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2014, 41(12): 2260-2261.
[10] 王建书, 刘强, 杭惠, 等. ARIMA乘积季节模型在苏州市其他感染性腹泻发病预测中的应用[J].职业与健康, 2018, 34(6): 769-771,775. WANG Jianshu, LIU Qiang, HANG Hui, et al. Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Suzhou City [J]. Occupation and Health, 2018, 34(6): 769-771, 775.
[11] 范宇琴, 冯娟, 阳玉萍, 等. 基于SARIMA模型预测乌鲁木齐市变应性鼻炎发病趋势[J]. 新疆医科大学学报, 2017, 40(10): 1251-1254. FAN Yuqin, FENG Juan, YANG Yuping, et al. Prediction of trend of allergic rhinitis in Urumqi based on SARIMA model [J]. Journal of Xinjiang Medical University, 2017, 40(10): 1251-1254.
[12] 方积乾, 陆盈, 张晋昕, 等. 现代医学统计学[M]. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2002.
[13] 王燕. 应用时间序列分析[M]. 3版. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2012: 141.
[14] 朱猛, 祖荣强, 霍翔, 等. 时间序列分析在流感疫情预测预警中的应用[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2011, 45(12): 1108-1111. ZHU Meng, ZU Rongqiang, HUO Xiang, et al. The application of time series analysis in predicting the influenza incidence and early warning[J]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2011, 45(12): 1108-1111.
[15] 刘雷, 张连生, 汤恒, 等. ARIMA 乘积季节模型在丙肝发病预测中的应用[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2014, 18(4): 366-367. LIU Lei, ZHANG Liansheng, TANG Heng, et al. Application of ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model on Hepatitis C incidence [J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention, 2014, 18(4): 366-367.
[16] 卢娟, 杨春梅, 宫占威, 等. ARIMA模型应用于部队病毒性肝炎预测预警分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2011, 15(2): 173-175. LU Juan, YANG Chunmei, GONG Zhanwei, et al. Forecast analysis on viral hepatitis in army by ARIMA model [J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention, 2011, 15(2): 173-175.
[17] 严婧, 杨北方. 指数平滑法与ARIMA模型在湖北省丙型病毒性肝炎发病预测中的应用[J]. 中国疫苗和免疫, 2017, 23(3): 292-297. YAN Jing, YANG Beifang. Application of exponential smoothing methods and ARIMA modeling to predict the incidence of hepatitis C in Hubei province[J]. Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization, 2017, 23(3): 292-297.
[18] 姚英, 沈毅. 手足口病发病趋势的ARIMA模型预测[J]. 浙江预防医学, 2015, 27(2): 147-149. YAO Ying, SHEN Yi. The application of ARIMA model in predicting incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease [J]. Zhejiang Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2015, 27(2): 147-149.
[19] 李静. 谈病毒性肝炎的防治[J].饮食保健, 2015, 2(16): 219.
[20] 谭京广, 杨峥嵘, 陈琳, 等. 深圳市艾滋病病例报告灰色预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2015, 22(12): 1521-1523. TAN Jingguang, YANG Zhengrong, CHEN Lin, et al. Grey forecast of AIDS case reporting in Shenzhen City [J]. Practical Preventive Medicine, 2015, 22(12): 1521-1523.
[21] 王永斌, 郑瑶, 柴峰, 等. 基于周期分解的ARIMA模型在甲肝发病率预测中的应用[J]. 现代预防医学, 2015, 42(23): 4225-4229. WANG Yongbin, ZHENG Yao, CHAI Feng, et al. Forecasting incidence of hepatitis A with ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model in China [J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2015, 42(23): 4225-4229.
[22] 朱奕奕, 冯玮, 赵琦, 等. ARIMA乘积季节模型在上海市甲肝发病预测中的应用[J]. 复旦学报(医学版), 2012, 39(5): 460-464. ZHU Yiyi, FENG Wei, ZHAO Qi, et al. Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the incidence of hepatitis A in Shanghai[J]. Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences, 2012, 39(5): 460-464.
[1] HE Shiqing, LI Wanwan, DONG Shuqing, MOU Jingyi, LIU Yuying, WEI Siyu, LIU Zhao, ZHANG Jiaxin. Construction of a prognostic risk model of pyroptosis-related genes in breast cancer based on database [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2022, 60(8): 34-43.
[2] FENG Yiping, SUN Dapeng, WANG Xianjun, JI Yiman, LIU Yunxia. Comparison of prediction effects of DLNM and LSTM neural network on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Linyi City [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2022, 60(2): 96-101.
[3] TIAN Qing, LIU Yongpeng, ZHANG Jingjing, LIU Hongqing. Application of ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model in the prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Shandong Province [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2021, 59(7): 112-118.
[4] ZHAO Jie, LI Yan, LI Ming, YU Dexin. Spiral CT in differentiating benign and malignant tumors with myxoid degeneration [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2021, 59(4): 100-107.
[5] ZHANG Bei, ZHANG Xiulei, BASANG Pianduo, NIMA Ciren, SHI Dachun, CIREN Jiabu, YIN Tingting, HU Jun. Spatial epidemiological characteristics and prediction of tuberculosis in Shigatse City from 2011 to 2018 [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2021, 59(2): 108-113.
[6] JIANG Xiaofeng, YAO Jingjing, ZHU Dawei, HE Ping, SHI Xuefeng, MENG Qingyue. Influence of compensation mechanism reform on the hospitalization expenses of a county-level public hospital in Shandong Province [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 1(9): 95-102.
[7] XIAO Yufei, FENG Jianing, WANG Xiaoxuan, MAO Qian, SHI Fuyan, WANG Suzhen. Prediction of the prognosis of 312 cirrhosis patients using the joint models and database [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 1(9): 71-76.
[8] Qiang WU,Zekun HE,Ju LIU,Xiaomeng CUI,Shuang SUN,Wei SHI. A research on multi-modal MRI analysis based on machine learning for brain glioma [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 1(8): 81-87.
[9] LIU Xiaodi, MA Jie, XIU Jingwei, CUI Qingxia, LI Wangchen,WANG Zaixiang. Application of multiple seasonal model in prediction of tuberculosis epidemic [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(9): 71-76.
[10] MA Jie, TIAN Ye, HUANG Lu, MENG Weijing, WANG Suzhen, SHI Fuyan. Comparison of multiple seasonal ARIMA model and generalized regression neural network model in forecasting the incidence of brucellosis [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(6): 76-82.
[11] CUI Liangliang, ZHANG Meng, YU Kunkun, JIANG Chao, RUAN Shiman. Acute effects of major air pollutants on emergency calls in Jinan City [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(11): 34-41.
[12] WANG Zhiqiang, XU Yanlong, XIAO Changchun, FENG Xiaoliang, ZHENG Li, LI Fei, HUANG Fayuan. Time series analysis in ambient PM2.5 pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality in Hefei city during 2014 to 2016 [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(11): 48-52.
[13] YOU Yingqi, ZHU Jingying, ZHANG Xuhui, ZHANG Xi, ZHOU Weijie. Impact of air pollution on the outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Wuxi City: a time series study [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(11): 53-60.
[14] MAN Jinyu, CUI Liangliang, HAN Lianyu, YU Kunkun, WU Xingbin, YUE Kesan, ZHOU Jingwen. Acute effects of ambient particulate matter on local residents’ hospital visits in a heavy air polluted area of Jinan City during 2014-2016 [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(11): 61-67.
[15] CHEN Lang, ZHAO Chuan, CHEN Fengge, BAI Ping. Effect of airborne particulates concentration on outpatient visits of respiratory diseases among children in Shijiazhuang City [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(11): 68-75.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Copyright 2018 © Editorial office of Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences)
Supported by Beijing Magtech Co.Ltd