Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 48-52.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.176

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Time series analysis in ambient PM2.5 pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality in Hefei city during 2014 to 2016

WANG Zhiqiang1, XU Yanlong1, XIAO Changchun2, FENG Xiaoliang1, ZHENG Li1, LI Fei1, HUANG Fayuan3   

  1. 1. Department of Environment Health, Anhui Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China;
    2. Department of Environment &
    Occupational Health, Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230061, Anhui, China;
    3. Anhui Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution on mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City from 2014 to 2016. Methods Data on environmental factors and meteorological factors from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 was obtained from the local municipal environmental monitoring center and meteorology bureau of Hefei City, respectively. Data on daily mortality in the same period was obtained from the Death Reporting Monitoring Network system. Controlling temporal trends, temperature, relative humidity, day of week, weekend, holidays and 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -王志强,等.合肥市2014~2016年大气污染物PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析 \=-other factors, time-series analysis in generalized linear model which based on Poisson regression was applied to evaluate the association between air pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality. Results There was significant influence of increasing PM2.5 concentration on the mortality of circulatory diseases. The strongest effect was the lag0 day and lag05 day, the excess risk(ER)of death risk was 0.53%(95%CI: 0.09%-0.98%)in the lag0 day and 1.01%(95%CI: 0.33%-1.70%)in lag05 day. By increasing 10 g/m3 of PM2.5 concentration, the mortality rate of circulatory diseases increased 0.53% and 1.01%, respectively. In the elder group(age≥60),the effect was stronger(lag0: ER=0.57%, 95%CI: 0.11%-1.03%; lag05: ER=1.04%, 95%CI: 0.33%-1.76%), but there was no significant effect in the non-elder group(age<60). In the multi-pollution model, by adding SO2 or NO2, the effect of the model was reduced, and by adding O3, there was no significant effect in the model. Conclusion From 2014 to 2016, air pollution had a significant impact on the mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City. High ambient PM2.5 concentration can increase the number of mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City, and in the elder group, the effect was stronger.

Key words: Air pollution, PM2.5, Cardiovascular disease, Mortality, Time series analysis

CLC Number: 

  • R122.2
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