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A time series model in incidence forecasting of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

LI Xiu-jun1, KANG Dian-min2, CAO Jie2, WANG Jie-zhen1   

  1. 1. School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China； 2. Shandong Center of the Disease Prevention and Control, Jinan 250031, China

  • Received:2007-07-20 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-05-16 Published:2008-05-16
  • Contact: WANG Jie-zhen

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Abstract: To discuss if it is possible to forecast hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence with time series predictive models. MethodsThe HFRS incidence model was fit with time series models based on the data from 1982 to 1999 in Linyi City. The monthly incidence in Linyi City from 2000 to 2002 was predicted with ARIMA models. ResultsThe data of 2000 had the closest tolerance. ConclusionThe ARIMA model can be used to forecast HFRS incidence with high predictive precision in the short-term.

Key words: Time series models, Prediction, Incidence

CLC Number: 

  • R181.25
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