您的位置：山东大学 -> 科技期刊社 -> 《山东大学学报（医学版）》

山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 143-150.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.1248

• • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省2015~2020年热带气旋对白纹伊蚊密度和登革热发病率的影响

颜钰1,2,李传玺1,2,刘起勇2,3,马伟1,2   

  1. 1.山东大学公共卫生学院流行病学系, 山东 济南 250012;2.山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心, 山东 济南 250012;3.中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 北京 102206
  • 发布日期:2021-12-29
  • 通讯作者: 马伟. E-mail:weima@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(82073615);传染病预防控制国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2018SKLID302)

Impacts of tropical cyclones on the density of aedes albopictus and the incidence of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020

YAN Yu1,2, LI Chuanxi1,2, LIU Qiyong2,3, MA Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • Published:2021-12-29

PDF (PC)

130

摘要： 目的 探索浙江省热带气旋与白纹伊蚊密度和人群登革热发病率的关联性。 方法 收集浙江省2015~2020年4~11月每日热带气旋数据、登革热发病数据和气象数据及每半月媒介伊蚊监测数据。利用广义相加模型分析热带气旋对白纹伊蚊密度和登革热发病的影响及滞后效应,其中热带气旋对登革热发病的影响进行年龄亚组分析。 结果 热带气旋可增加浙江省登革热发病风险,在滞后0、2 d时达到峰值,居民发病风险增加0.37倍(RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.06~1.78;RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.09~1.72)。不同年龄人群受到的影响不同,在滞后3、7 d时,45岁以上人群发病风险分别增加0.51倍(RR=1.51,95%CI:1.08~2.13)和0.58倍(RR=1.58,95%CI:1.16~2.16);在滞后5 d时,60岁以上人群发病风险达到最大(RR=1.64, 95%CI:1.12~2.40)。纳入布雷图指数的广义相加模型分析结果显示,热带气旋对登革热发病的影响在浙江省受到热带气旋影响的半月内最大,且45岁以下和60岁以上人群发病风险较高。在受到热带气旋影响的半月内布雷图指数更高,差异具有统计学意义。热带气旋不同累计影响天数的组间布雷图指数差异不具有统计学意义。 结论 热带气旋能增加人群登革热发病风险,60岁以上和45岁以下人群为高危人群,应采取有效措施加强对脆弱人群的保护,降低登革热发病风险。热带气旋期间蚊媒密度上升,应及时开展蚊媒消杀工作,降低区域内蚊媒密度。

关键词: 热带气旋, 登革热, 布雷图指数, 广义相加模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the association between tropical cyclones, density of aedes albopictus, and incidence of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020. Methods Data of daily tropical cyclones, dengue cases and meteorological factors as well as data of biweekly vector aedes from April to November during 2015-2020 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The impact and lag effect of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and the density of aedes albopictus were analyzed with generalized additive model(GAM). The association between tropical cyclones and the number of daily and biweekly dengue cases was analyzed with age subgroups. Results Tropical cyclones increased the risk of dengue in Zhejiang Province. The strongest effect appeared at lag 0 and lag 2 days, and the risk of dengue fever increased by 0.37 times(RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.06-1.78; RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.09-1.72). The impacts on different ages groups varied. At the lag 3 and 7 days, the risk of the population under 45 increased by 0.51 times(RR=1.51, 95%CI: 1.08-2.13)and 0.58 times(RR=1.58, 95%CI: 1.16-2.16), respectively. The population aged 60 and over had the highest risk(RR=1.64, 95%CI: 1.12-2.04)at lag 5 days. Analysis results of GAM incorporating Breateau Index(BI)showed that the effect of tropical cyclones on the risk of dengue reached the maximum in the half month when tropical cyclones raged over Zhejiang Province. Meanwhile, the population under 45 and over aged 60 had a higher risk. The BI was higher in the half-month affected by tropical cyclones, and the difference was statistically significant. There was no significant difference in BI between tropical cyclone groups with different influence days. Conclusion Tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province are associated with the increase of dengue cases. The age subgroups over 60 years and below 45 years are high-risk groups, who need special prevention measures. As mosquito density increases during tropical cyclones, mosquito vector elimination should be carried out timely to reduce the mosquito density in the area.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Dengue, Breteau index, Generalized additive model

中图分类号: 

  • R373.3+3
[1] 葛文鑫, 靳珂珂, 孙丽娜, 等. 登革热流行与不同气象因素相关性研究进展[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2019, 30(4): 367-370,378. GE Wenxin, JIN Keke,SUN lina,et al.Research advances in the relationship between dengue epidemic and different meteorological factors[J].Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2019, 30(4): 367-370,378.
[2] Colón-González FJ, Sewe MO, Tompkins AM, et al. Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study [J]. Lancet Planet Health, 2021, 5(7):e404-414.doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7.
[3] WHO. World Health Day 2014: Preventing vector-borne diseases [EB/OL].(2014-04-02)[2021-09-13].https://www.who.int/news/item/02-04-2014-world-health-day-2014-preventing-vector-borne-diseases.
[4] 牟笛, 崔金朝, 殷文武, 等. 2015~2018年我国登革热暴发流行病学特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(5): 685-689. MOU Di, CUI Jingzhao, YIN Wenwu, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever outbreaks in China, 2015-2018 [J]. Chinese Jourrtal of Epidemiology, 2020, 41(5): 685-689.
[5] Li C, Lu Y, Liu J, et al. Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges [J]. Sci Total Environ, 2018, 622-623:493-501.doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.326.
[6] Jie TZ, Wei XH, Bao FA, et al. Infectious diseases and tropical cyclones in southeast china [J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2017, 14(5): 494. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.326.
[7] 龚道方, 周红宁. 中国登革热重要媒介白纹伊蚊的研究进展[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2009, 20(6): 607-610. GONG Daofang, ZHOU Hongning. Progress in Dengue fever important vector Aedes albopictus in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2009, 20(6): 607-610.
[8] 卢莹, 赵海坤, 赵丹, 等. 1984~2017年影响中国热带气旋灾害的时空特征分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2021, 43(6): 45-61. LU Ying, ZHAO Haikun, ZHAO Dan, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristic of tropical cyclone disasters in China during 1984-2017 [J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2021, 43(6): 45-61.
[9] Mendelsong R, Emanuel K, Chonabayshi S, et al. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage [J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(3): 205-209. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1357.
[10] 王桢, 凌锋, 刘营, 等. 浙江省2015~2019年登革热流行特征分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2020, 31(6): 643-647. WANG Zhen, LING Feng, LIU Ying, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Zhejiang province, China, 2015-2019[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2020, 31(6): 643-647.
[11] 俞燎霓, 胡波, 董加斌, 等. 1953~2012年间影响浙江的热带气旋大风的气候特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 应用海洋学学报, 2013, 32(2): 171-177. YU Liaoni, HU Bo, DONG Jiabin, et al. Analyses on the characteristics of violent wind of TCs and the corresponding influence factors in Zhejiang Province from 1953 to 2012 [J]. Journal of Applied Oceanography, 2013, 32(2): 171-177.
[12] 郭颂, 凌锋, 王金娜, 等. 浙江省不同地理株白纹伊蚊mtDNA-COⅠ基因多态性研究 [J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2016, 32(2): 133-136, 147. GUO Song, LING Feng, WANG Jinna, et al. Genetic polymorphism analysis of cytochrome C oxidase subunit I gene in Aedes albopictus from Zhejiang Province, China [J]. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2016, 32(2): 133-136, 147.
[13] 刘小波, 吴海霞, 郭玉红, 等. 2019年全国媒介伊蚊监测报告[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2020, 31(4): 401-406.
[14] 温州市气象局.台风分析 [EB/OL].(2021-11-25)[2021-09-13].http://www.wztf121.com/
[15] 许浩恩, 陈海燕, 赵璐. 浙江影响热带气旋的几个统计特征[J]. 浙江气象, 2009, 30(2): 4-8, 21.
[16] 国家气象信息中心.中国地面气象日值数据集(V3.0)[EB/OL].(2021-09-30)[2021-08-13]. http://data.cma.cn/
[17] Mukaka MM. Statistics corner: a guide to appropriate use of correlation coefficient in medical research [J]. Malawi Med J, 2012, 24(3): 69-71.
[18] 朱建平. 世卫组织: 44岁以下为青年[J]. 健康博览, 2013(6): 13.
[19] DiSera L, Sjödin H, Rocklöv J, et al. The mosquito, the virus, the climate: an unforeseen réunion in 2018[J]. GeoHealth, 2020,4(8):e2020GH000253. doi:10.1029/2020GH000253.
[20] Li C, Zhao Q, Zhao Z, et al. The association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2018: a time-stratified case-crossover study [J]. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2021, 15(9): e0009776. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009776.
[21] Hsieh YH, Chen CWS. Turning points, reproduction number, and impact of climatological events for multi-wave dengue outbreaks [J]. Trop Med IntI Health,2009, 14(6): 628-638. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02277.x.
[22] 陈斌. 广东登革热防控能力评估及社区干预实验研究[D]. 北京: 中国疾病预防控制中心, 2017.
[23] 国家卫生和计划生育委员会.登革热诊疗指南(2014年第2版)[J]. 中国医药科学, 2014, 4(21): 221-224.
[24] 祝绯飞, 袁寒艳, 王芝敏, 等. 2017年浙江省杭州市拱墅区登革热暴发疫情调查分析 [J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(5): 422-426. ZHU Feifei, YUAN Hanyan, WANG Zhimin, et al. An outbreak of dengue fever in Gongshu district of Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 2017[J].Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(5): 422-426.
[25] Liu KK, Wang T, Huang XD, et al. Risk assessment of dengue fever in Zhongshan, China: a time-series regression tree analysis [J]. Epidemiol Infect, 2017, 145(3): 451-461. doi:10.1017/S095026881600265X
[26] Keke L, Xiang H, Yiguan W, et al. The driver of dengue fever incidence in two high-risk areas of China: A comparative study [J]. Sci Rep, 2019, 9(1): 990-507.
[27] 易彬樘, 张治英, 徐德忠, 等. 广东省登革热流行与伊蚊种群随气候因素变化的相互关系 [J]. 卫生研究, 2003(2): 152-154. YI, Bintang, ZHANG Zhiying, XU, Dezhong, et al. Relationship of dengue fever epidemic to aedes density changed by climate factors in Guangdong Province [J]. Journal of hygiene research, 2003(2): 152-154.
[28] Jing Y, Wang X, Tang S, et al. Data informed analysis of 2014 dengue fever outbreak in Guangzhou: Impact of multiple environmental factors and vector control [J]. J Theor Biol, 2017, 416: 161-179. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.12.014.
[29] Meng HR, Xiao JP, Liu T, et al. The impacts of precipitation patterns on dengue epidemics in Guangzhou city [J]. Int J Biometeorol, 2021,65(11):1929-1937.
[30] Xiang JJ, Hansen A, Liu QY, et al. Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014 [J]. Environ Res, 2017, 153: 17-26. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.11.009.
[1] 李传玺,刘起勇,马伟. 广州市极端降水事件对不同特征人群登革热发病的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(12): 151-157.
[2] 荀换苗,胡文琦,刘羿聪,马伟. 2009~2013年广东省热带气旋对手足口病的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 50-55.
[3] 李佳蔚,魏然,张安然,胡文琦,林君芬,马伟. 热带气旋与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的病例交叉研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 43-49.
[4] 马伟,张安然. 热带气旋对人类健康的影响研究新进展[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 29-36.
[5] 魏然,张安然,李佳蔚,胡文琦,薛莉,林君芬,马伟. 夏季日温差与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病就诊量的关系[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 107-113.
[6] 薛莉,胡文琦,魏然,张安然,林君芬,马伟. 2011~2013年高温热浪对苍南县高血压门诊就诊量的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 63-69.
[7] 肖长春,唐静,李玉荣,翟金霞. 合肥市空气污染与某儿童医院肺炎门诊量关系的时间序列分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 76-83.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 肖伟玲,林亚杰,牟东珍,孙萍,梁淑娟 . 分泌型人IL-1β表达载体的构建及在H7402细胞中的表达[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2008, 46(2): 119 -122 .
[2] 刘益民，杜鲁涛，王丽丽，蒋秀梅，李娟，曲爱林，王海燕，郑桂喜，张欣，杨咏梅，王传新. 膀胱癌患者血清microRNA检测中内参基因的筛选及验证[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2014, 52(5): 86 -91 .
[3] 蒋慧慧1，胡志敏2，李先哲1，席广民1，蒋汉明1，苑辉卿1. 人PDLIM4基因启动子报告基因载体的构建及其在人类肿瘤细胞中的表达[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2011, 49(5): 19 .
[4] 王海峰,史本康,张克勤,李永智,朱耀丰,王海新. B超检测的精索静脉直径及返流与术后精液质量的关系[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2007, 45(7): 751 -752 .
[5] 张元凯，刘培来，李德强，李明. 枢椎椎板螺钉联合寰椎侧块螺钉固定技术在复杂寰枢椎脱位中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2010, 48(11): 98 .
[6] 张秀珍,刘莉,刘倩. 慢性乙型肝炎患者血清瘦素水平与抗病毒治疗应答的相关性[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2012, 50(9): 96 -99 .
[7] 韩露1，王彬2，牟晓梅2，巩会平3，闫会敏1，王志浩1，张运1，张薇1，钟明1. 代谢综合征患者心脏损害与脂肪因子变化的临床研究[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2011, 49(9): 63 .
[8] 潘国政, 由法平, 王帅, 卜庆敖, 袁庆忠. 目标导向性液体治疗对老年患者腹部外科手术的影响[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2015, 53(6): 82 -85 .
[9] 孙维彤,邹伟伟,李爱国,席延伟,张娜. 脂质体粒径对促进托氟啶口服吸收的影响[J]. 山东大学学报(医学版), 2007, 45(6): 639 -642 .
[10] 马燕燕,龚瑶琴. 人脑类器官在神经发育疾病研究中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(9): 22 -29 .
版权所有 © 2018 《山东大学学报(医学版)》编辑部　
地址:山东大学科技期刊社（济南市历城区山大南路27号山东大学中心校区明德楼B座721室） 电话: 0531-88366918 E-mail: xbyxb@sdu.edu.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发