热带气旋与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的病例交叉研究

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.055

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探讨2012~2013年浙江省沿海地区热带气旋对医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的影响。方法使用时间分层的病例交叉研究,控制气象因素的混杂作用,以Poisson回归模型分析浙江省苍南县2012~2013年夏季(7~10月)热带气旋与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的关系,并按性别、年龄进行分层分析。结果在热带气旋影响期,全人群、男性和女性的呼吸系统疾病发病风险均上升,分别在滞后第3、4、6天达到最大值。<15岁人群呼吸系统疾病发病风险上升,在滞后第6天达到最大值(RR=1.298, 95%CI:1.016~1.658)。热带气旋对15~65岁人群及>65岁人群的呼吸系统疾病发病影响无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论热带气旋可增加呼吸系统疾病的发病风险且存在滞后效应,<15岁人群为易感人群。

关键词: 热带气旋, 呼吸系统疾病, 病例交叉研究, 门诊日就诊量, 滞后效应

Abstract: Objective To explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the daily outpatient numbers of respiratory diseases in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province in 2012 and 2013. Methods Time-stratified case-crossover study was used to explore the relationship between tropical cyclones and the daily outpatient numbers of respiratory diseases from July to October in 2012 and 2013 in Cangnan County, Zhejiang Province. Poisson regression model was used to control meteorological factors and conduct the statistical analysis. Stratified analysis by gender and age was conducted. Results In the tropical cyclone period, the risk of respiratory diseases increased to a maximum on the 3rd, 4th, and 6th lag days among all population, males, and females, respectively. The risk of respiratory diseases increased to a maximum on the 6th lag day among population aged <15 years old(RR=1.298, 95%CI:1.016~1.658). There was no statistically significant relationship between tropical cyclones and respiratory diseases among population aged from 15 to 65 years old and population aged >65 years old(P>0.05). Conclusion The tropical cyclone may increase the risk of respiratory diseases and there are lagged effects. The population aged <15 years old is more vulnerable.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Respiratory disease, Case-crossover study, Daily outpatient numbers, Lag effect

中图分类号:

R181.3

李佳蔚,魏然,张安然,胡文琦,林君芬,马伟. 热带气旋与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的病例交叉研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 43-49.

LI Jiawei, WEI Ran, ZHANG Anran, HU Wenqi, LIN Junfen, MA Wei. A case-crossover study on the tropical cyclones and daily outpatient numbers of respiratory diseases[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(8): 43-49.

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