2009~2013年广东省热带气旋对手足口病的影响

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.128

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探究2009~2013年广东省热带气旋对手足口病发病的影响。方法采用时间分层的病例交叉设计定量分析不同等级的热带气旋对0~14岁人群手足口病发病的影响,探讨滞后效应,并根据年龄、性别和教育方式进行人群亚组分析。结果热带气旋中的热带风暴在滞后4~6 d可增加0~14岁人群手足口病发病风险,RR值在滞后第5天达到最大,为1.59(95%CI:1.20~2.11),热带气旋中的台风对手足口病发病的影响无统计学意义。0~14岁人群中男性、0~4岁儿童和散居儿童是热带风暴的敏感人群,男性和散居儿童的效应在滞后第5天达到最大,RR值分别为1.75(95%CI:1.29~2.37)和1.60(95%CI:1.18~2.16),0~4岁儿童的效应在滞后第4天达到最大,RR值为1.58(95%CI:1.18~2.10)。结论热带风暴可增加0~14岁人群手足口病发病风险,且存在滞后效应,疾病预防控制部门应采取措施预防热带风暴发生后儿童及青少年手足口病的发生,预防应以男童、0~4岁儿童及散居儿童为主。

关键词: 热带气旋, 手足口病, 儿童, 病例交叉设计

Abstract: Objective To explore the effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Guangdong Province during 2009 and 2013. Methods The effects of tropical cyclones of different grades on the incidence of HFMD in people aged 0-14 years were quantitatively analyzed with time stratified case-cross design. The lag effect was also explored. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age, sex and educational style. Results Tropical storms could increase the risk of HFMD in population aged 0-14 years in 4-6 lag days. The RR value reached its maximum of 1.59(95%CI: 1.20-2.11)on the 5^th lag day. Typhoon had no significant effect on the incidence of HFMD. Male, children aged 0-4 years and scattered children were sensitive to tropical storms. The RR value of male and scattered children reached the maximum on the 5^th lag day, which was 1.75(95%CI: 1.29-2.37)and 1.60(95%CI: 1.18-2.16), respectively. The RR value of children aged 0-4 years reached the maximum on the 4^th lag day, which was 山东大学学报 (医学版)56卷8期 -荀换苗,等.2009~2013年广东省热带气旋对手足口病的影响 \=-1.58(95%CI: 1.18-2.10). Conclusion Tropical cyclones can increase the risk of HFMD in people aged 0-14 years and have lag effect. Measures should be taken to prevent the occurrence of HFMD among children and young people after tropical storms attack, especially among boys, children aged 0-4 years and scattered children.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Hand-foot-mouth disease, Children, Case-crossover design

中图分类号:

R181.3

荀换苗,胡文琦,刘羿聪,马伟. 2009~2013年广东省热带气旋对手足口病的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 50-55.

XUN Huanmiao, HU Wenqi, LIU Yicong, MA Wei. Impacts of tropical cyclones on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangdong Province, 2009-2013[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(8): 50-55.

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