Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 53-59.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0694

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Influence factors of COVID-19 in Shandong Province based on geographically weighted generalized linear model

QI Chang1, ZHU Yuchen1, LI Chunyu1, LIU Lili1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, SHE Kaili1, CHEN Ming2, KANG Dianmin3, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Liaocheng Infectious Disease Hospital, Liaocheng 252002, Shandong, China;
    3. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

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Abstract: Objective To explore the related influence factors of coronavirus diseases 2019(COVID-19)in Shandong Province and understand the regional distribution characteristics of the epidemic situation, and to provide a scientific basis for guiding prevention and control strategies. Methods The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and related influence factors in Shandong Province from January 21 to March 1, 2020 were collected. The geographic weighted generalized linear model(GWGLM)was used to analyze the number of confirmed cases and the spatial heterogeneity among various influence factors. Results We analyzed spatial distribution of 558 confirmed cases. The results of GLM analysis showed that the population density, per capita disposable income, public budget expenditure, the proportion of Hubei immigrations and the spatial distance from Wuhan were statistically significant. The denser the population, the higher the per capita disposable income, and the higher the public budget expenditure, the greater the number of confirmed cases; the size of the Hubei immigrants and the spatial distance from Wuhan were inversely related to the number of confirmed cases in most counties and districts. In this study, the R2 of GWGLM was 0.363, and the model could explain 36.3% of the total variation of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Conclusion GWGLM reveals the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 and its influence factors, and helps the local area to apply the policy precisely; the hierarchical prevention and control measures of different regions should be developed according to the spatial distribution characteristics of each factor and its local relationship with the number of confirmed cases.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Geographically weighted generalized linear model, Spatial heterogeneity, Spatial analysis, Prevention

CLC Number: 

  • R181.2
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