Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (12): 62-65.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.447

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Risk prediction model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in health management cohort

GU Jianhua1,2, MA Xiaotian1,2, LI Jiqing1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, WANG Jialin3,4   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Science and Education, Shandong Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250117, Shandong, China;
    4. Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China
  • Online:2017-12-20 Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To establish a risk prediction model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among health management Chinese population, and to evaluate its effects in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of COPD. Methods The model was established based on “Shandong Multicenter Health Management Longitudinal Cohort of Observation Large Data”. A total of 33 383 people were included. Cox proportional hazards regression model for COPD was established after variable screening of the influencing factors of COPD. The stability of the model was tested with ten-fold cross validation. The discriminatory ability of the model was determined with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC). Results Altogether 136 COPD cases were observed over the study, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 118.08/100 000 person-year. The risk factors included age, gender, smoke, albumin, blood pressure and white blood cell count. The estimated AUC for the model was 0.872(95%CI: 0.810-0.930). After internal verification by ten-fold cross validation, the AUC was 0.866(95%CI: 0.809-0.923). Conclusion We have constructed a risk model that can be useful in identifying individuals at high risk of COPD in our cohort.

Key words: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Cohort study, Risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R563.9
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