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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 89-95.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.0820

• 公共卫生与管理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

2014~2016年气温和相对湿度对深圳市5岁以下儿童轮状病毒腹泻的影响

郝强1,高琦1,赵然1,王海涛1,刘志东2,姜宝法1,3   

  1. 1.山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系, 山东 济南 250012;2.山东大学齐鲁医院人事处, 山东 济南 250012;3.山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心, 山东 济南 250012
  • 发布日期:2022-01-25
  • 通讯作者: 姜宝法. E-mail: bjiang@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101202)

Effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on rotavirus diarrhea among children under 5 years old in Shenzhen City during 2014-2016

HAO Qiang1, GAO Qi1, ZHAO Ran1, WANG Haitao1, LIU Zhidong2, JIANG Baofa1,3   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Personnel Division, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-01-25

摘要： 目的 研究深圳市气象因素对5岁以下儿童轮状病毒(RV)腹泻的非线性和滞后效应。 方法 对深圳市2014~2016年气象因素和RV腹泻进行相关性分析,控制其他气象因素和长期趋势等混杂因素后,采用分布滞后非线性模型分别探讨气温和相对湿度对RV腹泻的影响。 结果 低温是RV腹泻的危险因素,当气温在P5(13.4 ℃)和P25(19 ℃)时滞后效应在第11天达到最大。RR值分别为1.118(95%CI: 1.096~1.139)和1.076(95%CI: 1.063~1.090),21 d的累积效应值为6.828(95%CI: 5.059~9.215)和3.244(95%CI: 2.641~3.985)。在P75(28.2 ℃)、P95(30.1 ℃)效应无统计学意义。RV腹泻对相对湿度的变化表现较为迅速,显示出明显的负相关作用。在P5(52.75%)相对湿度时,滞后2~16 d时都表现出危险效应,滞后4 d时有最大的效应,RR值为1.063(95%CI: 1.040~1.085),21 d累积RR为1.565(95%CI: 1.205~2.032)。相对湿度为P75(83%)和P95(91%)时,对RV腹泻有显著性的保护作用,累积RR值分别为0.720(95%CI: 0.663~0.782)和0.283(95%CI: 0.224~0.358)。 结论 气温和相对湿度对RV腹泻的影响呈明显的非线性、滞后性。低温是RV腹泻的危险因素;相对湿度与RV病例数有明显的负相关关系,建议在低温低湿季节对5岁以下儿童加强健康教育,及时采取防护措施来预防该疾病的流行。

关键词: 轮状病毒, 气温, 相对湿度, 分布滞后非线性模型, 滞后效应, 累积效应

Abstract: Objective To investigate the non-linear and lag effects of meteorological factors on rotavirus diarrhea in children under 5 years old in Shenzhen. Methods The correlation between meteorological factors and rotavirus diarrhea in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2016 was analyzed. The effects of temperature and relative humidity on rotavirus diarrhea were analyzed using distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)after controlling for confounding factors including other meteorological variables and long-term trend. Results Low temperature was a risk factor for rotavirus diarrhea. The strongest effects of 5th(13.4 ℃)(RR=1.118, 95%CI: 1.096-1.139)and 25th(19 ℃)(RR=1.076, 95%CI: 1.063-1.090)percentiles of temperature occurred at the lag-11 day. The cumulative effects at the lag-21 day were 6.828(95%CI: 5.059-9.215)and 3.244(95%CI: 2.641-3.985). There were no statistically significant differences at P75(28.2 ℃)and P95(30.1 ℃). Relative humidity was associated with a decreased risk of rotavirus diarrhea. When relative humidity was P5(52.75%), there were adverse effects from the lag day 2 to lag day 16, the strongest lag effect occurred at the lag day 4(RR=1.063, 95%CI: 1.040-1.085), and the lag-21 day cumulative RR was 1.565(95%CI: 1.205-2.032). When the relative humidity was P75(83%)or P95(91%), it had significant protective impacts on rotavirus diarrhea, and the cumulative RR were 0.720(95%CI: 0.663-0.782)and 0.283(95%CI: 0.224-0.358), respectively. Conclusion Temperature and relative humidity have a non-linear and lag pattern on rotavirus diarrhea. Low temperature is a risk factor for rotavirus diarrhea, and there is a significant negative correlation between relative humidity and the number of rotavirus cases. We suggest that relevant departments should strengthen health education for children under 5 years old in the low temperature and low humidity season, and take timely protective measures to prevent the epidemic of rotavirus.

Key words: Rotavirus diarrhea, Temperature, Relative humidity, Distributed lag non-linear model, Lag effect, Cumulative effect

中图分类号: 

  • R181.3
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