气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1275

山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 76-87.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1275

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气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究

李京^1,2,王创新³,胥欣⁴,杨军⁵,王春平^1,2,薛付忠⁶,刘起勇^7,8

1.潍坊医学院公共卫生与管理学院环境卫生教研室, 山东潍坊 261053;2.“健康山东”重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心, 山东潍坊 261053;3.济南市历城区疾病预防控制中心, 山东济南 250100;4.潍坊医学院附属医院口腔科, 山东潍坊 261000;5.暨南大学环境与气候研究院, 广东广州 510632;6.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东济南 250012;7.山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心, 山东济南 250012;8.中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 北京 102206

发布日期:2022-09-27
通讯作者: 薛付忠. E-mail:xuefzh@sdu.edu.cn;刘起勇. E-mail:liuqiyong@icdc.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1200800);国家自然科学基金(81703280);山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2017WS703);山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2016WS0664);潍坊市科技发展计划(2016YX065);潍坊医学院教育教学改革与研究重点项目(2016Z0102);山东省保健科技协会资助项目(20170022)

Impacts of ambient temperature on chronic non-communicable disease mortality in Jinan City, China during 2007-2013: an attributable risk study

LI Jing^1,2, WANG Chuangxin³, XU Xin⁴, YANG Jun⁵, WANG Chunping^1,2, XUE Fuzhong⁶, LIU Qiyong^7,8

1. Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China;
2. “Health Shandong” Major Social Risk Prediction and Governance Collaborative Innovation Center, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China;
3. Licheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China;
4. Department of Dentistry, Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261000, Shandong, China;
5. Jinan University Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, China;
6. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
7. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
8. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China)〓山〓东〓大〓学〓学〓报〓(医〓学〓版)56卷8期〓-李京, 等.气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究〓\=-〓〓

Published:2022-09-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的采用归因风险评估分析气温与健康结局之间的关系,补充公共卫生学方面的证据。方法收集济南市2007~2013年逐日气温与非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的逐日死亡数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型的归因风险评估方法,分析气温暴露造成人群死亡的归因风险,并进一步探索气温对敏感人群的风险。结果济南市日均气温与非意外死亡/心血管疾病死亡/呼吸系统疾病死亡的累积暴露-反应关系曲线近似呈U型;由气温导致的归因风险比例分别为13.2%(95%CI: 9.6~16.8)/17.0%(95%CI: 12.6~20.8)/27.8%(95%CI: -2.5~50.5)。低温对女性、老年人和教育水平较低者影响较大。结论高温或低温均可增加人群不同疾病死亡风险,但是低温效应的归因比例高于高温的作用。

关键词: 非意外死亡, 心血管疾病, 呼吸系统疾病, 气温, 归因风险, 死亡

Abstract: Objective To supplement the public health evidence by assessing the relationship between temperature and health adopting attributable risk assessment. Methods Daily data on temperature and non-accidental/cardiovascular/respiratory mortality outcomes were obtained from 2007 to 2013. Attributable risk assessment by distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the relationship of different disease mortality with temperature, and further to explore the risks of temperature on susceptible population. Results The overall cumulative exposure-response curve of temperature-mortality relationship was U-shaped. In total, ambient temperature was attributable 13.2%(95%CI: 9.6-16.8)/17.0%(95%CI: 12.6-20.8)/27.8%(95%CI: -2.5-50.5)to death risks for non-accidental/cardiovascular/respiratory disease, respectively. Females, people ≥65 years and people with low educated level were more vulnerable. Conclusion Both heat and cold are associated with an increased risk of daily mortality, but most mortality burdens are caused by cold.

Key words: Non-accidental death, Cardiovascular disease, Respiratory disease, Temperature, Attributable risk, Mortality

中图分类号:

R181.3+4

李京,王创新,胥欣,杨军,王春平,薛付忠,刘起勇. 气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 76-87.

LI Jing, WANG Chuangxin, XU Xin, YANG Jun, WANG Chunping, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Qiyong. Impacts of ambient temperature on chronic non-communicable disease mortality in Jinan City, China during 2007-2013: an attributable risk study[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(8): 76-87.

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气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究

Impacts of ambient temperature on chronic non-communicable disease mortality in Jinan City, China during 2007-2013: an attributable risk study

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