山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 96-101.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.0707
冯一平1,2,孙大鹏3,王显军3,纪伊曼1,2,刘云霞1,2
FENG Yiping1,2, SUN Dapeng3, WANG Xianjun3, JI Yiman1,2, LIU Yunxia1,2
摘要: 目的 运用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)和长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络对山东省临沂市手足口病(HFMD)发病趋势进行分析和预测,为该病的有效防控提供参考依据。 方法 对临沂市2011年1月1日至2015年12月31日HFMD日发病数据分别进行DLNM和LSTM神经网络建模拟合,以2016年1月1日至2017年12月31日发病数据检验并比较两模型的预测效果。 结果 2011年1月1日至2017年12月31日临沂市共报告HFMD 25 999例。DLNM和LSTM神经网络外推预测2016年1月1日至2017年12月31日发病数的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为11.93和5.74,平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为7.93和3.60,提示LSTM神经网络的预测精度优于DLNM,预测结果与实际情况基本一致。 结论 LSTM神经网络对临沂市HFMD发病趋势的拟合程度和预测效果较好,可为该病的预测预警提供指导。
中图分类号:
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