健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.347

山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 82-86.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.347

健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型

苏萍^1,2,杨亚超³,杨洋^1,2,季加东^1,2,阿力木·达依木^1,2,李敏^1,2,薛付忠^1,2,刘言训^1,2

1.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东济南 250012;2.山东大学齐鲁生物医学大数据研究中心, 山东济南 250012;3.威海市立医院健康体检科, 山东威海 264200

收稿日期:2017-04-20 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-10
通讯作者: 刘言训. E-mail:liu-yx@sdu.edu.cn薛付忠. E-mail:xuefzh@sdu.edu.cn E-mail:liu-yx@sdu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(81273177)

Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population

SU Ping^1,2, YANG Yachao³, YANG Yang^1,2, JI Jiadong^1,2, DAYIMU Alimu^1,2, LI Min^1,2, XUE Fuzhong^1,2, LIU Yanxun^1,2

1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
3. Physical Examination Department, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China

Received:2017-04-20 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的构建健康管理人群2型糖尿病3年发病风险预测模型。方法依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察大数据库,选择20~75岁的基线未患2型糖尿病者构建队列。采用Cox比例风险回归构建2型糖尿病预测模型,以受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型的预测效能,以十折交叉验证法检验模型的稳定性。结果随访期间共新发糖尿病1 624例,男性和女性的发病密度分别为15.00‰、10.83‰。男性预测模型最终纳入的变量包括年龄、体质量指数、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、谷丙转氨酶、白细胞计数。纳入女性预测模型的变量包括年龄、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白、谷丙转氨酶。男性和女性预测模型的AUC分别为0.795(95%CI:0.764~0.827)和0.707(95%CI:0.654~0.759)。结论分性别建立的2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型在健康管理人群中均具有较好预测能力。

关键词: 2型糖尿病, Cox比例风险回归, 风险预测模型, 队列

Abstract: Objective To construct prediction models to estimate the risks of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)in 3 years among the health management population in mainland China. Methods Non-diabetic people aged 20 to 75 years at the baseline were chosen from Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management to compose our cohort. Coxs proportional hazards regression model was adopted to build T2DM prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)was used to evaluate the predictability of the model. Ten-fold cross-validation was adopted to test the stability of the model. Results During the follow-up of 3.68±2.8 years, 1,624 cases of new-onset diabetes occurred. The incidence density of male and female was 15.00‰ and 10.83‰, respectively. The risk factors for the male model included age, body mass index(BMI), fasting plasma glucose(FPG), triglyceride, alanine aminotransferase(ALT), and white blood cell(WBC)count. The risk factors 山东大学学报 (医学版)55卷6期 -苏萍,等.健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型 \=-for the female model included age, FPG, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C), and ALT. The AUC of the male model and female model was 0.795(95% CI: 0.764-0.827)and 0.707(95%CI: 0.654-0.759), respectively. Conclusion The male and female prediction models we constructed have high predictability and reliability among the health management population.

Key words: Cohort study, Coxs proportional hazards regression, Type 2 diabetes, Risk prediction model

中图分类号:

R587.1

苏萍,杨亚超,杨洋,季加东,阿力木·达依木,李敏,薛付忠,刘言训. 健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2017, 55(6): 82-86.

SU Ping, YANG Yachao, YANG Yang, JI Jiadong, DAYIMU Alimu, LI Min, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Yanxun. Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 82-86.

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健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型

Prediction models on the onset risks of type 2 diabetes among the health management population

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