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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 61-65.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.357

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基于健康管理队列的高血压风险预测模型

于涛1,2,刘焕乐3,冯新4,徐付印4,陈亚飞1,2,薛付忠1,2,张成琪5   

  1. 1.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东 济南 250012;2.山东大学齐鲁生物医学大数据研究中心, 山东 济南 250012;3.胜利油田中心医院保健科, 山东 东营 257000;4.胜利油田中心医院健康管理中心, 山东 东营 257000;5.山东大学附属千佛山医院健康管理中心, 山东 济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-26 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 刘焕乐. E-mail:zxyylhl@163.com张成琪. E-mail:chengqizhangsd@126.com E-mail:zxyylhl@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(81273082)

A hypertension risk prediction model based on health management cohort

YU Tao1,2, LIU Huanle3, FENG Xin4, XU Fuyin4, CHEN Yafei1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, ZHANG Chengqi5   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Health Care, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, Dongying 257000, Shandong, China;
    4. Health Management Center, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, Dongying 257000, Shandong, China;
    5. Health Management Center, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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摘要： 目的 基于健康管理队列,构建高血压风险预测模型。 方法 依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察队列,排除基线高血压、心脑血管疾病、血肌酐>177 μmol/L、年龄<20岁者,构建高血压研究队列(共22 177人,其中男12 044人,女10 133人),分性别采用Cox回归建立高血压预测模型,并评价模型预测效果。 结果 观察期间新发高血压4 571例,发病密度为62.84/1 000人年。最终男性模型中的变量包括年龄、体质量指数、收缩压、舒张压、空腹血糖和红细胞压积,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.821(95%CI:0.812~0.830);女性模型中的变量包括年龄、体质量指数、收缩压、红细胞计数和高密度脂蛋白,AUC为0.818(95%CI:0.806~0.828)。十折交叉验证结果显示,男女AUC分别为0.819(95%CI:0.810~0.828)、0.814(95%CI:0.803~0.825)。 结论 该模型具有较好的预测能力,可用来识别高血压高危个体。

关键词: 健康管理队列, 高血压, 预测模型

Abstract: Objective To establish a prediction model for the risk of hypertension based on health management cohort. Methods Based on Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management and after exclusion of participants with baseline hypertension, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and other related diseases, a cohort with 22 177 subjects, including 12 044 males and 10 133 females, was established. Cox regression was used to construct prediction models for hypertension in males and females. The effect of model prediction was evaluated. Results A total of 4 571 new hypertention cases were observed, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 62.84/1 000 person years. The risk factors of the model for males included age, body mass index, systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, fasting blood-glucose and hematocrit. The estimated AUC of the model was 0.821(95%CI: 0.812-0.830). In the model for females, the risk factors included age, body mass index, systolic pressure, red blood cell and high density lipoprotein cholesterol. The estimated AUC of the model was 0.818(95%CI: 0.806-0.828). Ten-fold cross validation showed that the estimated AUC of the model for males was 0.819(95%CI: 0.810-0.828)and 0.814(95%CI: 0.803-0.825) 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -于涛,等.基于健康管理队列的高血压风险预测模型 \=-for females. Conclusion The model has good prediction ability and could be used to identify individuals with high risk of hypertension.

Key words: Health management cohort, Prediction model, Hypertension

中图分类号: 

  • R544.1
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