河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与时空聚集性分析

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0745

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的通过对河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行特征与时空聚集性进行分析,为河北省疫情防控及相关政策的制定提供科学依据。方法收集河北省2020年1月22日至2月27日COVID-19疫情数据,揭示该省疫情的流行特征;采用时空扫描的方法对疫情的聚集性进行分析。结果 2020年1月22日河北省石家庄市报告首例COVID-19确诊病例,截至2月27日全省共报告COVID-19病例318例,其中包括湖北(含武汉)输入病例80例(25.16%),武汉输入病例69例(21.70%);全省病例男女比例为1.06∶1,30~69岁(70.76%);2月5日至2月10日为疫情高峰期,2月7日单日最高确诊24例,随后确诊病例逐渐下降,截至3月12日已连续14 d无新增确诊病例;河北省11个地市均发现COVID-19疫情,疫情覆盖范围达河北省82个区(县)(82/175,46.86%),其中疫情最严重的区(县)为唐山市迁安市(30例);11个地市均发生了聚集性疫情,共发现聚集性病例239例,其中110例(46.03%)是家庭聚集性传播导致。唐山市迁西县、遵化市及迁安市的时空聚集性最高,聚集时间为2月5日至2月15日(RR=15.69,LLR=61.75,P<0.01)。结论河北省COVID-19疫情为全人群普遍易感,早期以境内省外输入性病例(以下简称“输入性病例”)为主,后期以本地病例为主,全省聚集性疫情占2/3,未发现医务人员感染,国家启动一级响应后,目前疫情已得到有效控制,但随着复工复学的逐步推进和境外输入病例、无症状感染者的增加,仍需加强常态化疫情防控,巩固疫情防控向好态势。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 河北省, 流行特征, 时空聚集性

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Hebei Province in order to provide scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods Data of COVID-19 epidemic in Hebei Province from Jan. 22 to Feb. 27, 2020 were collected to analyze the epidemic characteristics. The clustering of epidemic was analyzed with spatial-temporal scanning. Results On Jan. 22, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported in Shijiazhuang City. As of Feb. 27, a total of 318 cases were reported in the whole province, including 80 imported cases(25.16%)from Hubei(including Wuhan), and 69 imported cases(21.70%)from Wuhan. The ratio of males to females was 1.06∶1. Patients aged 30 to 69 years accounted for 70.76% of the total. The peak period of epidemic outbreak was Feb. 5 to Feb. 10, with a maximum of 24 cases reported in a single day on Feb. 7, and then the number of cases gradually decreased. As of Mar. 12, there had been no new confirmed cases for 14 consecutive days. COVID-19 epidemic was found in 11 prefectures and cities in Hebei Province, including 82 districts/counties(82/175, 46.86%), of which the most severely affected was Qianan City(30 cases). A total of 239 clustering outbreaks were reported in all 11 prefectures and cities, 110(46.03%)of which were caused by family clusters. Qianxi County of Tangshan City, Zunhua City and Qianan City had the highest spatial-temporal clustering, and the clustering time was from Feb. 5 to 15(RR=15.69, LLR=61.75, P<0.01). Conclusion The entire population is susceptible to COVID-19. The early cases were mainly imported from other provinces, and in the later stage, cases were mainly local. Clustering outbreaks accounted for 2/3 of the total. No medical staff were infected. When the state initiated a first-level response, the epidemic had been effectively controlled. However, with the resumption of work and school and the increase of imported cases from abroad and asymptomatic infections, it is still necessary to strengthen regular epidemic prevention and control and maintain the favorable situation.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Hebei Province, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial-temporal clustering

中图分类号:

R181

刘廷轩,齐畅,佘凯丽,贾艳,朱雨辰,李春雨,刘利利,王旭,章志华,李秀君. 河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与时空聚集性分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 74-81.

LIU Tingxuan, QI Chang, SHE Kaili, JIA Yan, ZHU Yuchen, LI Chunyu, LIU Lili, WANG Xu, ZHANG Zhihua, LI Xiujun. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of COVID-19 in Hebei Province[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 74-81.

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