基于时空统计方法分析温州市2020年1~3月新型冠状病毒肺炎的聚集性分布

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0735

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的通过时空统计分析探索温州市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的时空分布特征,为政府制定相应的防控策略提供理论依据。方法收集2020年1月21日至3月1日温州市12个县区武汉返温病例与接触过确诊患者的本地继发COVID-19病例疫情监测资料进行分析,运用ArcGIS 10.5制作发病数地图进行可视化,利用SaTScan 9.6进行时空聚类分析,比较武汉返温病例与本地继发病例的时空分布特征并分析本地继发病例聚集的原因。结果截至2020年3月1日,温州市COVID-19累计发病数为504例,发病率为6.08/10万。累计出院数为447例,其中武汉返温病例为168例,接触过COVID-19确诊患者的本地继发病例为221例,两类病例时空聚类分析结果均存在明显时空聚集性,聚类结果基本一致,主要聚集区为乐清市、瑞安市与永嘉县。结论温州市COVID-19发生存在时空聚集性,武汉返温人员较多的县区,本地继发病例相对较多。因此,有关部门应针对性加强武汉返温病例重点聚集区的防控与人员管理,加强来温人员排查和服务工作,降低一切可能导致疾病发生的风险。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 时空聚类, 空间分析, 空间流行病学, 温州市

Abstract: Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 in Wenzhou and to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of preventive and control measures. Methods The epidemic data of COVID-19 cases returning from Wuhan and local secondary cases who contacted with the confirmed cases from 21 January 2020 to 1 March 2020 were collected and analyzed. ArcGIS 10.5 was used to produce a map of the number of cases. Spatiotemporal clustering analysis was performed with SaTScan 9.6 to explore the epidemic characteristics of returning and local cases and to investigate the causes of local cases. Results As of 1 March 2020, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases was 504, with an incidence of 6.08/100 000. The cumulative number of discharged cases was 447. Of all cases, 168 returned from Wuhan and 221 local secondary cases contacted with the confirmed cases. The spatial-temporal cluster analysis of the two types of cases showed obvious clustering, and the clustering results were basically consistent. Clusters occurred mainly in Yueqing City, Ruian City and Yongjia County. Conclusion There is a spatialtemporal aggregation of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. Counties with more COVID-19 cases returning from Wuhan had more local secondary cases. Prevention and control measures should be taken especially in regions where a large number of people migrated to reduce the risk of COVID-19.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Spatiotemporal clustering, Spatial analysis, Space epidemiology, Wenzhou City

中图分类号:

R574

刘利利,贾艳,齐畅,朱雨辰,李春雨,佘凯丽,刘廷轩,李秀君. 基于时空统计方法分析温州市2020年1~3月新型冠状病毒肺炎的聚集性分布[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 82-88.

LIU Lili, JIA Yan, QI Chang, ZHU Yuchen, LI Chunyu, SHE Kaili, LIU Tingxuan, LI Xiujun. Clustering distribution of COVID-19 in Wenzhou from January to March 2020 based on spatiotemporal analysis[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 82-88.

参考文献

[1] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 国家卫生健康委办公厅关于印发新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎防控方案(第三版)的通知[EB/OL].(2020-01-28)[2020-02-26]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202001/470b128513fe46f086d79667db9f76a5.shtml.
[2] Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al. A novel coronavirus frompatients with pneumonia in China, 2019 [J]. N Engl J Med,2020, 382(8): 727-733.
[3] Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia[J]. N Engl J Med, 2020,382(13):1199-1207.
[4] 国家卫生健康委员会. 新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎诊疗方案(试行第六版)[EB/OL].(2020-02-19)[2020-02-21]. http://www. nhe. gov. cn/yzygi/s7653p/202002/8334a8326dd94d329df351d7da8aefc2. shtml.
[5] Zhao S, Zhuang Z, Cao P, et al. Quantifying the association between domestic travel and the exportation of novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)cases from Wuhan, China in 2020: a correlational analysis [J]. J Travel Med, 2020, 27(2):taaa022.doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa022.
[6] Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study [J]. Lancet, 2020,395(10225): 689-697.
[7] Li R, Cheng S, Luo C, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clusters of mumps in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2014 [J]. Sci Rep, 2017, 7: 46328. doi:10.1038/srep46328.
[8] Wu X, Hu S, Kwaku A B, et al. Spatio-temporal clustering analysis and its determinants of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hunan, China, 2009-2015 [J]. BMC Infect Dis, 2017,17(1): 645.
[9] Zhang H, Yang L, Li L, et al. The epidemic characteristics and spatial autocorrelation analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease from 2010 to 2015 in Shantou, Guangdong, China [J]. BMC Public Health, 2019,19(1): 998.
[10] Xu L, Shi Y, Rainey JJ, et al. Epidemiological features and spatial clusters of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Qinghai Province, China, 2009-2015 [J]. BMC Infect Dis, 2018,18(1): 624.
[11] 朱红, 涂珍, 吴家利, 等. 2015-2016年湖北省人群血吸虫病病情流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 中国血吸虫病防治杂志, 2018, 30(4): 404-410. ZHU Hong, TU Zhen, WU Jiali, et al. Epidemiologic features and space-time clustering analysis of human schisto-somiasis in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2016 [J]. Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control, 2018, 30(4): 404-410.
[12] World Health Organization. WHO Director-Generals opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 [EB/OL].(2020-04-22)[2020-04-24]. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19 - 22-april-2020.
[13] Biao Tang, Xia Wang, Qian Li, et al. Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions [J]. J Clin Med, 2020, 9(2): 462.
[14] Sahoo S, Rani S, Parveen S, et al. Self-harm and COVID-19 pandemic: an emerging concern – a report of 2 cases from India [J]. Asian J Psychiatr, 2020, 51: 102104. doi:10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102104.
[15] Gui J, Liu Z, Zhang T, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clusters of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, China, 2008-2012 [J]. PLoS One, 2015,10(9): e139109. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0139109.
[16] 李明子. 温州“封城”的双重压力:18万温商在武汉,33万湖北人来温工作[EB/OL].(2020-03-10)[2020-05-04]. http://www.inewsweek.cn/society/2020-03-10/8721.html.
[17] 王智慧, 曾江忠, 张理想, 等. 温州地区52例新型冠状病毒肺炎治愈患者的临床特征分析[J]. 浙江医学, 2020, 42(4): 321-324. WANG Zhihui, ZENG Jiangzhong, ZHANG Lixiang, et al. Clinical characteristics of 52 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wenzhou [J]. Zhejiang Medical Journal, 2020, 42(4): 321-324.
[18] 凌锋, 刘社兰, 倪朝荣, 等. 浙江省首例新型冠状病毒肺炎报告病例流行病学调查[J]. 预防医学, 2020, 32(2): 109-112. LING Feng, LIU Shelan, NI Chaorong, et al. Epidemiological investigation of the first reported case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Wenzhou city [J]. Prev Med, 2020, 32(2): 109-112.
[19] 林君芬, 吴梦娜, 吴昊澄, 等. 浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎病例流行特征分析[J]. 预防医学, 2020, 32(3): 217-221. LIN Junfen, WU Mengna, WU Haocheng, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Wenzhou city [J]. Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(3): 217-221.
[20] Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China [J]. The Lancet, 2020, 395(10223): 497-506.
[21] 王小军, 高婧, 王小博, 等. 甘肃省新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的临床及流行病学特征[J]. 中国感染控制杂志, 2020, 19(3): 223-226. WANG Xiaojun, GAO Jing, WANG Xiaobo, et al. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in Gansu Province [J]. Chinese Journal of Infection Control, 2020, 19(3): 223-226.
[22] Jia JS, Lu X, Yuan Y, et al. Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China [J]. Nature, 2020, 582(7812): 389-394.
[23] 温州市卫生健康委员会.我市积极防控新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情[EB/OL].(2020-1-21)[2020-05-04]. http://wjw.wenzhou.gov.cn/art/2020/1/24/art_1209919_41855393.html.
[24] 何志辉, 宋铁, 黄琼, 等. 快速风险评估方法在城市防控新冠肺炎疫情工作的探索与运用——以温州市为例[J]. 华南预防医学, 2020, 46(2): 101-105. HE Zhihui, SONG Tie, HUANG Qiong, et al. Exploration and application of rapid risk assessment method in prevention and control of COVID-19 in urban areas: a case study based on data of Wenzhou [J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 46(2): 101-105.

相关文章 15

[1]	李焕杰,欧兰香,陈虹,陈健,耿军,高志鹏,王岩,丁兴龙,陈振,朱之炜,刘伦琴,汪运山. 新型冠状病毒IgM-IgG抗体检测试剂盒的制备及对15例患者临床应用初试[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 120-126.
[2]	王彬,布学慧,孔祥亘,张照华,吴谙诏,肖迪,蒋雪梅. 成人37例与儿童10例新型冠状病毒肺炎的临床特点比较[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 112-116.
[3]	王玲,曹海霞,张玲,张文娜,潘艳萍,史颖,张伟,崔峰. 淄博市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎家族聚集性疫情调查分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 100-104.
[4]	白尧,陈志军,宋姝璇,贺真,陈保忠,邵中军,刘昆. 西安市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎家族聚集性疫情调查分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 95-99.
[5]	张辉, 宋姝璇, 刘继锋, 贺真, 邵中军, 刘昆. 西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 89-94.
[6]	刘廷轩,齐畅,佘凯丽,贾艳,朱雨辰,李春雨,刘利利,王旭,章志华,李秀君. 河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与时空聚集性分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 74-81.
[7]	贾艳,李春雨,刘利利,佘凯丽,刘廷轩,朱雨辰,齐畅,张丹丹,王旭,陈恩富,李秀君. 浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行特征与空间分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 66-73.
[8]	齐畅,朱雨辰,李春雨,刘利利,张丹丹,王旭,佘凯丽,陈鸣,康殿民,李秀君. 基于地理加权广义线性模型探索山东省新型冠状病毒肺炎的影响因素[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 53-59.
[9]	佘凯丽,张丹丹,齐畅,刘廷轩,贾艳,朱雨辰,李春雨,刘利利,王旭,苏虹,李秀君. 安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征及其潜伏期估计[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 44-52.
[10]	李春雨,朱雨辰,齐畅,刘利利,张丹丹,王旭,徐学利,李秀君. 河南省信阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行动态[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 38-43.
[11]	朱雨辰,李春雨,齐畅,王莹,刘利利,张丹丹,王旭,康殿民,李秀君. 基于泊松过程的山东省新型冠状病毒肺炎的再生数估计及流行动态分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 32-37.
[12]	金新叶,卢珍珍,丁中兴,陈峰,彭志行. 武汉交通管制和集中隔离对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响的动力学模型研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 25-31.
[13]	徐丽君,刘文辉,刘远,李美霞,罗雷,欧春泉. SEIQCR传染病模型的构建及在广州市新型冠状病毒肺炎公共卫生防控效果评估中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 20-24.
[14]	李秀君,李新楼,刘昆,赵晓波,马盟,孙博. 地理信息系统在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控中的应用进展述评[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 13-19.
[15]	牛占丛,王彦霞,王晓亚,王晓庆,李亚轻,边竞. 新型冠状病毒肺炎2例报告[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 134-136.

多维度评价

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed