山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 38-43.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0642
李春雨1,朱雨辰1,齐畅1,刘利利1,张丹丹1,王旭1,徐学利2,李秀君1
LI Chunyu1, ZHU Yuchen1, QI Chang1, LIU Lili1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, XU Xueli2, LI Xiujun1
摘要: 目的 探讨河南省信阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行动态,为优化疫情防控策略、评估干预措施效果提供科学依据。 方法 收集信阳市官方报道的COVID-19病例数据和个案信息,确定感染日期,并由此估计潜伏期,构建SEIR的传染病动力学模型,分析疾病发生发展规律,同时模拟分析改变防控措施实施时间时疫情的动态变化。 结果 信阳市累计报告COVID-19确诊病例274例,罹患率为3.72/10万;潜伏期的中位数为6.00(4.00,7.25)d。模型分析显示,信阳市疫情的基本再生数R0=2.86,采取防控措施后有效再生数降至0.29;若提前3 d采取防控措施,病例数降低50.5%,而推迟3 d采取防控措施,病例数将增加1倍。 结论 信阳市COVID-19疫情快速扩散,但在国家强有力的防控措施下疫情很快得到控制。
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