山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 53-59.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0694
齐畅1,朱雨辰1,李春雨1,刘利利1,张丹丹1,王旭1,佘凯丽1,陈鸣2,康殿民3,李秀君1
QI Chang1, ZHU Yuchen1, LI Chunyu1, LIU Lili1, ZHANG Dandan1, WANG Xu1, SHE Kaili1, CHEN Ming2, KANG Dianmin3, LI Xiujun1
摘要: 目的 探讨山东省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的空间分布与相关影响因素,进一步了解山东省疫情的区域分布特征,为指导防控策略提供科学依据。 方法 收集2020年1月21日至3月1日山东省COVID-19确诊病例数及相关影响因素数据,采用地理加权广义线性模型(GWGLM)分析COVID-19确诊病例数及各影响因素间的空间异质性及其相关关系。 结果 对558例确诊病例的空间分布进行分析,广义线性模型(GLM)分析结果显示,人口密度、人均可支配收入、公共预算支出、湖北迁入规模占比和距武汉的空间距离均有统计学意义。人口越密集、人均可支配收入越高、公共预算支出越多,则确诊病例数越多;绝大多数县区的湖北迁入人口规模和距武汉的空间距离与确诊病例数呈负相关。GWGLM的R2为0.363,模型可解释COVID-19确诊病例数总变异的36.3%。 结论 GWGLM能够揭示COVID-19及其影响因素的空间异质性,有助于局域精准施策,应根据各因素的空间分布特征及其与确诊病例数的局域关系制定不同区域的分级防控措施。
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