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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 123-129.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.226

• • 上一篇    

济南市空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势和预测

孙湛1,刘仲1,张鑫1,于志刚1,李新伟2,崔亮亮2,张谊2,刘岚铮1   

  1. 济南市疾病预防控制中心 1.理化检验所;2.环境健康所, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 刘岚铮. E-mail:jinanliu2005@126.com

Trend analysis and forecast of the contents of metal and metalloid elements in the air fine particulate matter in Jinan City, China

SUN Zhan1, LIU Zhong1, ZHANG Xin1, YU Zhigang1, LI Xinwei2, CUI Liangliang2, ZHANG Yi2, LIU Lanzheng1   

  1. 1. Department of Physical and Chemical Testing;
    2. Department of Enviromental Health, Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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摘要： 目的 分析济南市2014年至2017年空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势,为有针对性地开展大气环境污染治理提供相应的数据支持。 方法 根据济南市空气污染的区域性特征,选择历城区和市中区两个监测点进行采样,检测细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素浓度,应用2014年至2017年数据,建立预测模型。利用预测模型预测2018年细颗粒物浓度。 结果 2014年至2017年济南市细颗粒物浓度范围为4.7~497.8 μg/m3;一季度>四季度>二季度>三季度;历城区高于市中区;日均超标率为45.43%,超标(1.06±0.81)倍;12种金属及类金属元素整体变化趋势与浓度基本保持一致,2014年至2015年整体基本保持高位,2016年开始逐渐降低,细颗粒物浓度的高峰时间晚于金属及类金属浓度的高峰时间;预测结果显示2018年细颗粒物浓度较2017年呈平稳下降趋势。 结论 济南市细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素季节性明显,一季度和四季度较高,因而大气污染防控措施制定应考虑污染物浓度的季节性特征。济南市细颗粒物时间序列模型预测效果良好,不仅能帮助了解细颗粒物浓度变化趋势,而且可以作为重污染天气预警指示之一。

关键词: 细颗粒物, 金属及类金属元素, 趋势, 预测, 浓度

Abstract: Objective To analyze the variation trend of metal and metalloid elements in the air fine particulate matter from 2014 to 2017 in Jinan City, and provide corresponding data supports for the scientific and targeted air pollution control. Methods According to the regional characteristics of air pollution in Jinan City, the samples were selected from two monitoring points in Licheng and Shizhong Districts. The concentrations of fine particulate matter, metal, and metalloid elements were detected. Using the data from 2014 to 2017, a prediction model was established, and the concentration of fine particulate matter in 2018 was predicted by using prediction model. Results During 2014-2017, the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan City ranged from 4.7 μg/m3 to 497.8 μg/m3. The concentration of fine particulate matter in the second and third quarters were lower than that in the first and fourth quarters, and the concentration of fine particulate matter in Licheng District was higher than that in Shizhong District. The exceeding standard ratio of the 24 h average value was 45.43%, while the mean of the 24 h average value was(1.06±0.81)times. The overall trend of 12 metal and metalloid elements was consistent with the mass concentration; it remained basically high from 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -孙湛,等.济南市空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势和预测 \=-2014 to 2015, and gradually decreased in 2016. The peak of mass concentration was always later than the peak of metal and metalloid concentration. The predicted concentration of fine particulate matter in 2018 was decreased compared with that in 2017. Conclusion The concentration of fine particulate matter and the metal and metalloid elements varied significantly in different quarters, and the higher levels were observed in the first and fourth quarters. So, specific control measures should be taken according to different air pollution status. The predictive effect of the time-series model of the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan works well, which can not only contributes to understanding the trends of the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan, but also can serve as an important indicator of heavy pollution.

Key words: Fine particular matter, Metal and metalloid elements, Tendency, Forecast, Concentration

中图分类号: 

  • R122
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