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    数据驱动的整合健康保险&健康维护理论方法专刊
    Theoretical method system for integrating health insurance and health maintenance in the context of big data
    XUE Fuzhong
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  1-19.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2019.471
    Abstract ( 601 )   PDF (21624KB) ( 63 )   Save
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    Health insurance are supposed to be united with health maintenance in both theory and practice, while their current combination is not close enough in China. For this reason, this study proposed a novel paradigm that integrates health insurance and health maintenance, and established its big data sharing platform. Then, the theoretical and methodological system for integration of health insurance and health maintenance was established following the design ideas, including big data-driven, cross-system(health insurance and health maintenance)integration, whole-course(life course and disease process)intervention and multidisciplinary intersection. This system includes the theory and method of health management driven by big data, the actuarial theory and method of health insurance, the novel triangular quadrilateral paradigm of I-M-P-G and its management decision-making and policy system. Driven by big data, health management and managed care could be applied in health maintenance, by which decreasing the compensation of health insurance organizations(I), increasing the income and efficiency of preventive/medical service providers(M), maintaining the health of insured population(P)and ensuring the objectives of government(G)were well interacted, and achieved an all-win situation. Meanwhile, this paradigm could give full play to the role of government for macro-regulation to promote the win-win development between social insurance and business insurance, as well as guide the funds to health management and managed care to implement earlier prevention and realize the goals of both reduction of expenditures and maintaining health. This article provided a theoretical method support for the health management system in “Health China” strategy and the new type of operation of “Internet + Health insurance + Health maintenance”.
    Theory and methodology on health insurance actuarial science research
    XIE Yuantao, LI Zhengxiao
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  20-38.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1016
    Abstract ( 816 )   PDF (2196KB) ( 269 )   Save
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    It is necessary to combine the compensation data of insurance companies, clinical diagnostic data of medical institutions and personal data of patients for health actuarial science modeling and analysis. From the actuarial point of view, it is mainly divided into rate-making and reserve evaluation. The traditional insurance focuses on passive risk 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -谢远涛,等.健康保险精算理论与方法体系 \=-management, while premium fund allocation becomes important from the perspective of active risk management. Rate-making can be classified into rough estimation method, regression models method, loss distribution method and empirical frequency method. It can also be classified into traditional classification rate, credibility rate, integrated rate, as well as pricing model based on incidence and adjustment model based on dependency perspective, from the point of view of pricing process and rate characteristics. Reserve evaluation includes deterministic reserve evaluation and stochastic reserve evaluation. The basic tool is the run-off triangle and the improved analysis framework based on operation time that dealing with the zero-claim problem. The deterministic model has developed to Mack model and Munich model, and the stochastic model has developed from generalized linear models to hierarchy models, and the stochastic effect has been extended. Premium fund allocation is essentially an optimization model and a very broad model framework. In the current paper, we discusses a simple fund allocation problem, and give a list of related research frameworks and methods, such as morbidity, Markov chain, morbidity options, solvency, risk supervision and so on.
    Development process, business modes and macrocally influencing factors for Internet-based health service in China
    YU Baorong, YANG Jin, GONG Xifei, YANG Ruxian
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  39-52.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1184
    Abstract ( 1750 )   PDF (1507KB) ( 278 )   Save
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    Basing on reviewing related literatures, news, reports, government documents, data and information of enterprises and related platforms, we summarizes and compares the historical development, market scale and business model of Internet-based health service(IHS)in China, then introduces modes of IHS in the United States, and points out the macro environmental factors that influence the development of IHS in China. The IHS in China developed from the initial telemedicine since the 1980 s. Both the progresses of technology and the enforcement of government policies accelerated its recently rapid development.The year 2014 is known as the first year of Chinas IHS market outburst, and the influx of capital has heated IHS market in the following years. There are different modes including non-interactive health information service, online consultation, medical e-commerce, health monitoring and management, and medical service process optimization.The marriage between IHS enterprises and the health insurance industry is the latest development. The development of the IHS market in the United States has gone through four stages, and at present the charging modes include charging pharmaceutical enterprises, charging physicians, charging insurance companies and charging insured companies. Different modes of IHS in China have their own ways of operating, target population, advantages and disadvantages, and development directions, with different emphasis and applicable scenarios. The development of IHS in China is influenced by financing mechanism, market space under the social and commercial health insurance environment, healthcare delivery system and characteristics of healthcare demand.
    Application of health management in social health insurance in the context of Healthy China
    CHAO Jianqian, CAI Ruixue
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  53-60.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1050
    Abstract ( 714 )   PDF (1359KB) ( 199 )   Save
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    Since the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, “Healthy China” has been promoted as a national strategy, and new requirements have been put forward for social medical insurance. At the same time, with the aggravation of the aging degree of society and high incidence of chronic diseases, the excessive burden of medical expenses has become more prominent. The above problems cannot be settled by social medical insurance, which only aims at the treatment of diseases and only takes expense reimbursement as the means. Therefore, this paper explored the application of health management in social medical insurance, the cooperation model of social insurance and commercial insurance,as well as the preventive role of health management(such as, controlling the disease risk of insured persons and improving the utilization rate of grassroots health service resources), in order to promote the sustainable development of social medical insurance.
    Application of health technology assessment in health insurance and health management
    FANG Ya
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  61-68.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1078
    Abstract ( 548 )   PDF (1270KB) ( 48 )   Save
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    As an important health decision-making tool, health technology assessment(HTA)is used to provide scien- 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -方亚. 卫生技术评估在健康保险和健康管理中的应用 \=-tific basis for policy-makers. This paper combs the progress of international and domestic application of HTA, summarizes the procedure and content, reviews the current status and progress of HTA in health insurance and health management, and puts forward new requests for HTA to meet the needs of time. In view of existing problems of HTA in China, this paper puts forward policy recommendations for further development, such as designing scientific evaluation process system, promoting the transformation of decisions, strengthening multilateral exchanges, promoting awareness of evidence-based decision making, ensuring the authority and transparency of HTA. Furthermore, it provides scientific basis for promoting the application of HTA in health insurance and health management.
    Trend of health management services model
    ZHANG Jingbo, LI Qiang, LIU Feng, HAN Yumei, YANG Jianguo
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  69-76.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1355
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    After years of development, health management has become an indispensable part of the medical service system abroad. Health management is experiencing a stage of development in China. It has made great progress both in theoretical research and practical exploration in recent years. Health management services mainly include health education, physical examination, health assessment and health intervention. Lacking of systematic health education, the main way of health education is passive publicity and education. The service products provided by health examination are simple 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -张静波,等.健康管理服务模式的发展趋势 \=-and lack of academic support. Health risk assessment model research is still in its infancy. Most of them are single disease risk prediction models. Exercise, nutrition and psychological intervention are the main routes of health intervention. However, the integration of nutrition and psychological intervention and health management is not very common at present except exercise. The charging standard for health management services is still unclear and health insurance products have not really served ordinary people. All of them limited the development of health management services. With the rapid development of information technology and health insurance, there will be an orderly integration of health care information and health care data. Health management services will be promoted by commercial health insurance based on health care data. In the future, individual fragmented health care data will be integrated into the whole life cycle health database, and the new health management service driven by commercial health insurance will become the main service model. This paper aims to explore the development trend of health management service model by analyzing the occurrence, development and current situation of health management.
    Application design and practice of commercial insurance unified payment platform in a three class hospital
    HAN Ye, ZHU Xingguo, WANG Chao, KUANG Jun
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  77-81.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1121
    Abstract ( 563 )   PDF (2366KB) ( 7 )   Save
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    At present, commercial insurance has a huge developmental space, and the relevant policies strongly support the cooperation between commercial insurance institutions and medical institutions. With the rapid development of “internet +” technology, it will be a trend to popularize the new online health care model, develop internet-based health services, and integrate health insurance with health management. The first commercial insurance payment platform in Shandong Province has been set up in Shandong Provincial Third Hospital, to realize rapid medical payment by several insurance companies. It has benchmark significance and is an effective exploration to promote medical reform, and has expanded the influence of the hospital in the industry and related management departments.
    Demand for long-term care—based on Monte Carlo simulation
    ZHU Dawei, YU Baorong
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  82-88.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1148
    Abstract ( 607 )   PDF (1311KB) ( 315 )   Save
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    Objective To explore the demand of long-term care in China. Methods Data was collected through multiple source. Using macro-simulation demand model and Monte Carlo simulation, the demand of long-term care in China was simulated and predicted. Results From 2020 to 2050, the number of elderly disabled people in China will increase from 27.113(26.445-27.781)million to 65.514(61.185-69.844)million, and the total disabled rate will increase from 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -朱大伟,等.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的我国老年人长期照护需求测算 \=-10.8% in 2020 to 13.7% in 2050. The total expenses will increase from 570.3(508.9-631.8)billion Yuan in 2020 to 5466.8(4 789.4-6 144.2)billion Yuan in 2050. The total cost of mildly disabled elderly was the highest(3 040 billion yuan in 2050), followed by the severely disabled elderly(1 682 billion yuan in 2050), while that for the moderately disabled elderly was the lowest(744.9 billion yuan in 2050). Conclusion The demand for long-term care for the disabled elderly is growing rapidly in China. It is necessary to integrate home, community and institutional care into an organic whole in order to establish a diversified and multi-channel financing approach.
    Health economic evaluation of “co-management of doctors of three kinds”of diabetes patients in Xiamen
    ZENG Yanbing, WANG Qiupeng, FANG Ya
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  89-94.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1079
    Abstract ( 704 )   PDF (966KB) ( 174 )   Save
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    Objective To examine the short-term effect of “co-management of doctors of three kinds” on diabetes patients in Xiamen and make short-term cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis. Methods A cross-sectional survey was performed among community residents with T2DM in Xiamen from July to August in 2016. Diabetes patients who had been in the “co-management of doctors of three kinds” for 1 year were enrolled in intervention group, and patients with chronic disease management during the same period were enrolled in control group. Questionnaires were designed to collect the information of the patients. The cost of intervention was measured. The effectiveness indexes included biochemical indicators, hierarchical medical indicators, knowledge of diabetes, diabetes self-management, and quality of life. The benefit was measured by the reduction of economic burden in “co-management of doctors of three kinds”. Results Eight hundred community residents were investigated in the study, and 798 valid questionnaires were collected(99.75%). Among them, there were 413 patients in intervention group and 385 in control group. After 1 years management, the control rates of hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c)levels and 2 h postprandial plasma glucose in intervention group 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -曾雁冰,等. 厦门市糖尿病“三师共管”模式的卫生经济学评价 \=-(74.8%, 79.9%)were significantly higher than those in control group(41.0%, 66.0%)(t=86.63, 19.14; all P<0.05). Besides, the rates of community first diagnosis and two-way referral,the knowledge of diabetes and the ability of self-management were all improved(t=12.59,82.42,12.54,10.40; all P<0.05). Per capita economic burden of disease in intervention group was 5 569 yuan per year, which was 1 412 yuan less than that in control group. One year after the intervention, the cost of intervention was 15.04 yuan per person per year for increasing the biochemical index such as HbA1c control rate by 1%. The cost of 1% increase of 2 hours postprandial blood glucose was 36.47 yuan per person per year. Hierarchical medical indicators such as two-way referral, community first visit rate, knowledge of diabetes and self-management compliance rate of 1% increase were 51.57,16.73,40.00 and 47.34 yuan per person per year, respectively. The incremental cost-benefit ratio was 2.78. Conclusion Compared with routine management, short-term intervention of “co-management of doctors of three kinds” can significantly improve T2DM patients glucose controlling, knowledge of diabetes, self-management, community first diagnosis and two-way referral. It can also significantly decrease the economic burden of disease. Thus the model shows better cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit for diabetes patients.
    Funding sources and funding criteria of elderly long-term care insurance
    JIANG Tian, YU Baorong, ZHU Dawei
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  95-102.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1152
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    Objective To give advice on the funding criteria and funding sources for the elderly long-term care insurance based on the study of existing national systems and policies and other scholars research. Methods The insured personnel were assumed to be the urban and rural economically active population and non-economically active population from 2020 to 2050. The “Holter two-parameter exponential smoothing method” was used to estimate the base of contributions for each fundraiser from 2020 to 2050. Fundraising methods for different stages, different groups and under different rate allocation schemes were proposed based on the idea of “pay as you go” system. The “Elderly Subsidy” and the balance of the community fund of Welfare Lottery managed by the Ministry of Civil Affairs are integrated and allocated to enrich the funding pool of the long-term care insurance account. Results In the year of 2025 and beyond, the last years balance of urban workers and rural medical insurance accounts will be lower than the needs of long-term care funding. The gap will increase rapidly, which is estimated to reach 500 billion yuan in 2030. From 2025 to 2050, the medical insurance account balance will not be used as a financing source of the elderly long-term care insurance. Instead, 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -姜甜,等.老年长期照护保险制度的筹资来源和筹资标准 \=-the insured personnel and the enterprise will pay the fee. The Ministry of Civil Affairs will integrate related subsidies and extract 50% of the annual balance of the welfare lottery account into the insurance funding pool. Under different rate allocation schemes and different payment age assumptions, the average proportion of the insured personnels contributions to their own wage income is up to about 3.89%, and the average proportion of corporate contributions to the total employee salary is up to 3.51%. Conclusion It is recommended that the elderly long-term care insurance gradually covers the insured from 2020. Between 2020 and 2024, the balances of urban employee medical insurance account and the rural medical insurance account would be used to meet the funding needs. From 2025, individual and enterprise contributions and other government subsidies will meet the needs together.
    Disease status of illness-induced poverty-stricken population
    WU Shuli, JIN Chuandi, WANG Hongna, LI Yunxia, ZHANG Lili
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  103-109.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2019.476
    Abstract ( 496 )   PDF (1590KB) ( 153 )   Save
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    Objective To investigate the disease status of illness-induced poverty-stricken population and to offer the basis for the government decision. Methods This cross-sectional study investigated the disease status of the illness-induced poverty-stricken population in Shandong Province using the “five-step screening method”. Data including the demographic characteristics and disease status were collected and analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using general descriptive statistics, chi-square tests and unconditional multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Results There were 102 731 illness-induced poverty-stricken individuals in Shandong Province by the end of 2017. A total of 42 446 individuals were confirmed to be diseased, and the prevalence rate of illness-induced poverty-stricken population was 41.32%. Males, Han nationality, low levels of education and age increase were risk factors for the disease risk of illness-induced poverty-stricken population(P<0.001). The top 10 diseases(sorted by prevalence rate)were hypertension(10.28%), cerebrovascular disease(7.70%), coronary heart disease(4.51%), severe mental illness(4.14%), diabetes(3.33%), chronic obstructive emphysema(2.05%), joint disease of hip and knee(1.44%), rheumatoid arthritis(1.05%), severe senile chronic bronchitis(0.71%)and senile cataract(0.59%). These 10 diseases were all chronic diseases and the number of patients suffered from which accounted for 86.70% of the total number of patients. Conclusion The elderly population was the main target of illness-induced poverty-stricken population in Shandong Province, and the top 10 diseases were the main poverty-stricken diseases.
    Association between longitudinal changes of HDL-C and coronary heart disease in a population with normal serum lipids: a retrospective cohort study
    LI Mingzhuo, SUN Xiubin, WANG Chunxia, YANG Yang, LIU Xinhui, LIU Yanxun, XUE Fuzhong, YUAN Zhongshang
    Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2019, 57(8):  110-116.  doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2019.287
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    Objective To investigate the relationship between the longitudinal changes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)and coronary heart disease(CHD)in people with normal blood lipids. Methods Based on the large-scale health management cohort, a retrospective study cohort was constructed in the population aged 20 to 70 years at baseline, with at least two physical examination records before the diagnosis of CHD or when the cut-off events occurred, maintaining normal blood lipids during the follow-up, and having no important variables missing. Change in HDL-C was calculated by subtracting the baseline value from the level at the end of follow-up, and the subjects were 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -李明卓,等.血脂正常人群HDL-C纵向变化与冠心病的关联性分析:一项回顾性队列研究 \=-divided into 4 groups according to the quartiles of HDL-C change: Q1 is the HDL-C descending group, Q2 is the HDL-C stable group, Q3 is the HDL-C gently increasing group, while Q4 is the HDL-C increasing group. After that, Cox regression models were used to evaluate the correlation between the longitudinal changes of HDL-C and CHD by defining HDL-C change as a continuous variable or a categorical variable. Confounding factors were adjusted stepwisely. Results A total of 8 958 participants were enrolled in the study cohort. Total follow-up time was 43 527.26 person-years, with 124 new CHD cases. Incidence density was 2.85/1 000 person-years. When HDL-C change was considered as a continuous variable, HDL-C change was always a protective factor for CHD morbidity with adjustment for potential confounding factors(age, gender, hypertension, smoking, drinking, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, baseline HDL-C, body mass index change, low density lipoprotein cholesterol change, etc.)step by step, and the hazard ratio(HR)and 95% confidence interval(CI)was 0.38(0.16-0.87); when HDL-C change was considered as a categorical variable, compared with Q1 group, Q4 group always had a lower risk of developing CHD, the HR(95% CI)of Q4 group in the all-adjusted Cox model was 0.43(0.24-0.78). Conclusion Longitudinal elevated HDL-C is an independent protective factor for CHD in people with normal blood lipids.