Abstract: Objective To give advice on the funding criteria and funding sources for the elderly long-term care insurance based on the study of existing national systems and policies and other scholars research. Methods The insured personnel were assumed to be the urban and rural economically active population and non-economically active population from 2020 to 2050. The “Holter two-parameter exponential smoothing method” was used to estimate the base of contributions for each fundraiser from 2020 to 2050. Fundraising methods for different stages, different groups and under different rate allocation schemes were proposed based on the idea of “pay as you go” system. The “Elderly Subsidy” and the balance of the community fund of Welfare Lottery managed by the Ministry of Civil Affairs are integrated and allocated to enrich the funding pool of the long-term care insurance account. Results In the year of 2025 and beyond, the last years balance of urban workers and rural medical insurance accounts will be lower than the needs of long-term care funding. The gap will increase rapidly, which is estimated to reach 500 billion yuan in 2030. From 2025 to 2050, the medical insurance account balance will not be used as a financing source of the elderly long-term care insurance. Instead, 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -姜甜,等.老年长期照护保险制度的筹资来源和筹资标准 \=-the insured personnel and the enterprise will pay the fee. The Ministry of Civil Affairs will integrate related subsidies and extract 50% of the annual balance of the welfare lottery account into the insurance funding pool. Under different rate allocation schemes and different payment age assumptions, the average proportion of the insured personnels contributions to their own wage income is up to about 3.89%, and the average proportion of corporate contributions to the total employee salary is up to 3.51%. Conclusion It is recommended that the elderly long-term care insurance gradually covers the insured from 2020. Between 2020 and 2024, the balances of urban employee medical insurance account and the rural medical insurance account would be used to meet the funding needs. From 2025, individual and enterprise contributions and other government subsidies will meet the needs together.

Key words: Disability, Elderly, Long-term care, Funding sources, Funding criteria