Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2019, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (8): 82-88.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.1148

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Demand for long-term care—based on Monte Carlo simulation

ZHU Dawei1, YU Baorong2   

  1. 1. China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China;
    2. School of Insurance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To explore the demand of long-term care in China. Methods Data was collected through multiple source. Using macro-simulation demand model and Monte Carlo simulation, the demand of long-term care in China was simulated and predicted. Results From 2020 to 2050, the number of elderly disabled people in China will increase from 27.113(26.445-27.781)million to 65.514(61.185-69.844)million, and the total disabled rate will increase from 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)57卷8期 -朱大伟,等.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的我国老年人长期照护需求测算 \=-10.8% in 2020 to 13.7% in 2050. The total expenses will increase from 570.3(508.9-631.8)billion Yuan in 2020 to 5466.8(4 789.4-6 144.2)billion Yuan in 2050. The total cost of mildly disabled elderly was the highest(3 040 billion yuan in 2050), followed by the severely disabled elderly(1 682 billion yuan in 2050), while that for the moderately disabled elderly was the lowest(744.9 billion yuan in 2050). Conclusion The demand for long-term care for the disabled elderly is growing rapidly in China. It is necessary to integrate home, community and institutional care into an organic whole in order to establish a diversified and multi-channel financing approach.

Key words: Long-term care, Demand, Monte Carlo simulation, Disability, Elderly

CLC Number: 

  • R197.1
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