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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 72-76.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.402

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健康管理人群高脂血症风险预测模型

张光1,王广银2,吴红彦1, 张红玉1,王停停3,4,李吉庆3,4,李敏3,4,康凤玲3,4,刘言训3,4,薛付忠3,4   

  1. 1.山东大学附属千佛山医院健康管理中心, 山东 济南 250014;2.胜利石油管理局胜利医院健康管理科, 山东 东营 257055;3.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东 济南 250012;4.山东大学齐鲁生物医学大数据研究中心, 山东 济南 250012
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-06 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 王广银. E-mail:18605463543@163.com E-mail:18605463543@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项项目(2014DFA32830)

A prediction model of hyperlipidemia risk based on the health management population

ZHANG Guang1, WANG Guangyin2, WU Hongyan1, ZHANG Hongyu1, WANG Tingting3,4, LI Jiqing3,4, LI Min3,4, KANG Fengling3,4, LIU Yanxun3,4, XUE Fuzhong3,4   

  1. 1. Health Management Center, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    2. Health Management Section, Shengli Hospital of Shandong Dongying Shengli Petroleum Administration Bureau, Dongying 257055, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    4. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-05-06 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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摘要： 目的 建立20岁以上健康管理人群高脂血症风险预测模型并对其预测效果进行评价。 方法 依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察队列共纳入30 056人,采用Cox比例风险回归建立高脂血症预测模型,利用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)进行模型评价,十折交叉验证法检验模型的预测效果和判别能力。 结果 随访期间共新发高脂血症5 063例,发病密度为47.78‰。预测模型纳入的变量为年龄、性别、吸烟、饮酒、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、总胆红素、高密度脂蛋白、糖尿病和高血压10个变量。预测模型的ROC曲线下面积AUC为0.741(95%CI: 0.731~0.752),经十折交叉验证平均AUC为0.741。 结论 构建的高脂血症风险预测模型在健康管理人群中具有较好预测能力。

关键词: 风险预测模型, 队列, 健康管理人群, 高脂血症

Abstract: Objective To construct a risk prediction model of hyperlipidemia for people aged 20 years and over. Methods A total of 30 056 people without hyperlipidemia at baseline were included based on the Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management. The prediction model was built on Cox proportional hazards regression model. The predictability was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC). The predictive effect and distinguishing ability were verified with ten-fold cross-validation. Results During the follow-up of 3.53±2.65 years, there were 5 063 new hyperlipidemia cases, and the incidence was 47.78‰. The risk factors of hyperlipidemia included age, sex, drinking, smoking, total cholesterol, triglyceride, total bilirubin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes and hypertension. The AUC was 0.741(95%CI:0.731-0.752). Ten-fold cross-validation verified that the AUC was 0.741. Conclusion The prediction model of hyperlipidemia has good prediction ability in the health management population.

Key words: Longitudinal cohort, Hyperlipidemia, Risk prediction model, Health management population

中图分类号: 

  • R589.2
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