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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (9): 69-72.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.074

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基于体检队列的2型糖尿病风险预测模型

杨洋1,张光2,张成琪2,宋心红3,薛付忠1,王萍4,王丽5,刘言训1   

  1. 1. 山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计系, 山东 济南 250012;2.山东大学附属千佛山医院健康管理中心, 山东 济南 250014;3.山东大学附属省立医院健康查体中心, 山东 济南 250021;4.山东大学齐鲁医院门诊手术室, 山东 济南 250012;5.山东电力中心医院心内科, 山东 济南 250001
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-21 出版日期:2016-09-10 发布日期:2016-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 刘言训. Email: liu-yx@sdu.edu.cn E-mail:mail: liu-yx@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项(2014GFA32830-A02)

A prediction model for type 2 diabetes risks: a cohort study based on health examination

YANG Yang1, ZHANG Guang2, ZHANG Chengqi2, SONG Xinhong3, XUE Fuzhong1, WANG Ping4, WANG Li5, LIU Yanxun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Health Examiwation Center, Qianfoshan Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    3. Health Examination Center, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    4. Outpatient Operating Room, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    5. Department of Cardiology, Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-01-21 Online:2016-09-10 Published:2016-09-10

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摘要： 目的 构建体检者2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型。 方法 选择2005年1月至2010年12月在山东大学附属省立医院、山东大学附属千佛山医院体检中心体检的非糖尿病者16 715人,随机选取70%体检者为训练组,用于建立Cox预测模型,逐步选择法进行变量选择,使用十折交叉验证法检验模型的稳定性,根据预后指数制定风险分级;剩余30%的体检者为校验组,对模型进行组外验证,再次评价模型效果。 结果 观察期间共新发生2型糖尿病858例,发病密度为15.14‰。最终纳入模型的变量包括年龄、体质量指数、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、是否患高血压以及白细胞自然对数;训练组ROC曲线下面积为0.742(95%CI: 0.732~0.752),校验组ROC曲线下面积为0.760(95%CI: 0.748~0.772)。 结论 建立的2型糖尿病风险预测模型在体检者中有较好的预测能力。

关键词: 体检, 队列, 2型糖尿病, 风险预测模型

Abstract: Objective To establish a model to evaluate the risks of type 2 diabetes among Han population in mainland China. Methods A total of 16,715 non-diabetic people who underwent routine health check-up at the Center for Health Management of Qianfoshan Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University and Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University during Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2010 were enrolled in the study. These people were randomly divided into the training group (n=11 700, 70%)and testing group(n=5 015, 30%). Cox regression was used to construct a simple risk model among the training group by stepwise selection method, and risk classification was drawn up according to the prognostic index. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the stability of the model in the testing group. Discriminatory ability was determined by the area under the ROC curve. Results Altogether 858 new diabetic cases were observed over the five-year follow-up, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 15.14/1000 person years. The risk factors included age, body mass index, fasting blood-glucose, triglyceride, hypertension status and leukocyte logarithm. The estimated AUC for the model was 0.742(95%CI: 0.732-0.752)in the training group and 0.760(95%CI: 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)54卷9期 -杨洋,等.基于体检队列的2型糖尿病风险预测模型 \=-0.748-0.772)in the testing group. Conclusion We have constructed a risk model that could be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of diabetes in health examination population.

Key words: Type 2 diabetes, Cohort study, Predictive model, Health check-up

中图分类号: 

  • R587.1
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