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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 87-92.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.350

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健康管理人群代谢综合征发病风险预测模型

孙苑潆1,2,杨亚超3,曲明苓3,陈雁敏3,李敏1,2,王淑康1,2,薛付忠1,2,刘云霞1,2   

  1. 1.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东 济南 250012;2.山东大学齐鲁生物医学大数据研究中心, 山东 济南 250012;3.威海市立医院健康体检科, 山东 威海 264200
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-24 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 杨亚超. E-mail:790587538@qq.com E-mail:790587538@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(81273177)

A prediction model for metabolic syndrome risk: a study based on the health management cohort

SUN Yuanying1,2, YANG Yachao3, QU Mingling3, CHEN Yanmin3, LI Min1,2, WANG Shukang1,2, XUE Fuzhong1,2, LIU Yunxia1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Physical Examination Department, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Weihai 264200, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-24 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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摘要： 目的 基于健康管理人群队列,构建代谢综合征的5年发病风险预测模型。 方法 依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察队列,选取20~80岁且基线未患代谢综合征者构建队列,采用Cox比例风险回归构建预测模型,并利用十折交叉验证法检验模型的稳定性,通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)和观测/期望(OE比)评价模型的预测效果。 结果 随访期间共发生代谢综合征1 591例(男1 273例,女318例),发病密度为38.57/1 000人年。男性代谢综合征预测模型纳入的变量包括年龄、BMI、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白、血尿酸、总胆固醇和是否高血压,女性模型纳入变量包括年龄、BMI、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、血尿酸和是否高血压;模型ROC曲线下面积分别为0.751(95%CI:0.742~0.759)和0.745(95%CI:0.734~0.756);OE比分别为1.03和1.00;十折交叉验证ROC曲线下面积平均值分别为0.749和0.746。 结论 本研究利用健康管理纵向队列数据,建立了代谢综合征5年发病风险预测模型,经十折交叉验证结果表明,其在健康管理人群中有较好的预测效果,有助于识别高发病风险人群,进而减少和预防代谢综合征的发生。

关键词: 代谢综合征, 健康管理人群, Cox比例风险回归, 纵向队列, 风险预测模型

Abstract: Objective To construct a model to evaluate the risk of developing metabolic syndrome(MetS)within 5 years in Chinese mainland Han population based on a health management population. Methods A total of 15 872 people without MetS at baseline were included based on the Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to build the prediction model and the discriminatory ability was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)and observed/expected counts(OE ratio). Results A total of 1 591 new MetS cases(1 273 males and 318 females)were observed during the follow-up of 5 years, accounting for an incidence density of 38.57/1000 person-year. In the male model, the risk factors included age, body mass index(BMI), fasting blood-glucose(FBG), triglyceride(TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C), uric acid(UA), total cholesterol and hypertension. In the female model, the risk factors included age, BMI, FBG, TC, UA and hypertension. The AUC was 0.751(95%CI: 0.742-0.759)and 0.745(95%CI: 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷6期 -孙苑潆,等.健康管理人群代谢综合征发病风险预测模型 \=- 0.734-0.756)in the male and female model, respectively. The OE ratio was 1.03 and 1.00 in the male and female model, respectively. Conclusion This study has constructed a 5-year risk model that could be informative for identifying individuals at a high risk of developing MetS in a health management population.

Key words: Health management population, Metabolic syndrome, Longitudinal cohort, Prediction model, Coxs proportional hazards regression

中图分类号: 

  • R589
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