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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 98-104.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1268

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2014~2016年济南市历城区大气气态污染物对社区人群门诊就诊影响的时间序列分析

满金宇1,岳克三2,崔亮亮3,李新伟3,韩联宇2,吴兴彬2,刘守钦3   

  1. 1. 山东大学公共卫生学院流行病学系, 山东 济南250012;2.济南市历城区疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科, 山东 济南 250199;3.济南市疾病预防控制中心环境健康所, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 刘守钦. E-mail:liushouqin@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2015WS0435)

Time series analysis of the impacts of gaseous air pollutants on community residents outpatient visits in Licheng District of Jinan City during 2014 and 2016

MAN Jinyu1, YUE Kesan2, CUI Liangliang3, LI Xinwei3, HAN Lianyu2, WU Xingbin2, LIU Shouqin3   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Public Health, Jinan Licheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250199, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Environmental Health, Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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摘要： 目的 评估济南市空气污染严重区域大气气态污染物对社区人群内科门诊就诊的急性效应。 方法 收集2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日济南市重污染区域某综合医院逐日内科门诊就诊个案记录、空气污染物浓度及气象信息,并进行描述性分析。采用广义线性模型,定量评估逐日大气气态污染物浓度与社区人群门诊就诊量之间的相关关系,并进行分性别、分年龄段(<65岁和≥65岁)、分系统疾病(呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病)的相关性分析。 结果 2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日间该综合医院内科门诊量合计241 574人次,日均就诊量220人次/d,NO2、SO2、CO日均浓度分别为53、58、1 506 μg/m3。仅发现NO2与内科门诊量存在关联。大气污染物NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3,当日内科门诊量增加1.13%(95%CI:0.55%~1.70%),lag02时增加1.47%(95%CI:0.72%~2.22%)。总门诊量及分年龄、分性别、分疾病门诊量均与NO2浓度存在统计学关联。不同性别、年龄组循环系统疾病的当日滞后效应模式与总体一致,呼吸系统疾病的当日滞后效应模式与总体略有不同。效应值男性高于女性、≥65岁人群高于<65岁人群。 结论 济南市空气污染严重区域大气气态污染物中仅NO2对社区人群的内科门诊量以及不同性别、不同年龄段、不同系统疾病存在广泛的急性效应,且男性较女性敏感、≥65岁人群较<65岁人群敏感。

关键词: 空气污染, 气态污染物, 内科门诊, 时间序列分析, 广义线性模型

Abstract: Objective To investigate the short-term effects of gaseous air pollutants on residents outpatient visits in the heavily polluted Licheng District of Jinan City. Methods The daily number of outpatients in a general hospital, daily air pollution and meteorological data in Licheng District during Jan. 1, 2014 and Dec. 31, 2016 were collected for 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -满金宇,等.2014~2016年济南市历城区大气气态污染物对社区人群门诊就诊影响的时间序列分析 \=-descriptive analysis. The relationship between the daily concentrations of gaseous air pollutants and the number of outpatients was analyzed with generalized linear model(GLM). The correlations between the concentrations of pollutants and different gender groups, age groups(<65 years and ≥65 years), respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases were evaluated. Results The total number of outpatients was 241 574, averaged 220 per day. The average daily concentrations of NO2, SO2 and CO were 53 μg/m3, 58 μg/m3 and 1 506 μg/m3, respectively. The concentration of NO2 was related to the number of outpatients. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in the concentration of NO2 meant the number of outpatients would increase by 1.13%(95%CI: 0.55%-1.70%)on lag0 and by 1.47%(95%CI:0.72%-2.22%)on lag02. There was correlation between the daily concentration of NO2 and the total number of outpatients, different gender groups and age groups, respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases. The same lag pattern was observed in different gender groups, age groups, and cardiovascular diseases. The pattern of respiratory diseases was different. The male had a higher risk than female, and the ≥65 group had a higher risk than the <65 group. Conclusion Our findings indicate that NO2 has posed a considerable risk to residents outpatient visits, and the elderly population(≥ 65 years)and males are more vulnerable.

Key words: Air pollution, Gaseous pollutants, Hospital visit, Time series analysis, Generalized linear model

中图分类号: 

  • R181.3+4
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